PitchMath
Premier League · 2025Sat, 27 Dec 2025, 15:00 UTCFull timeBrentford Community StadiumFull-time recap
4–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricBrentfordBournemouth
Shots15 shots/match20 shots/match▲
Shots on target7 shots/match10 shots/match▲
Possession49%51%
Corners2 corners/match15 corners/match
Fouls9 fouls/match8 fouls/match
Yellow cards2 cards/match2 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Brentford's last-five shots average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Bournemouth's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Brentford's recent record differs from the season

weak

Brentford's last-five shots average is below their season average.

7.8 shots/match▲ShotsLast 5 · Season10 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots7.8 shots/match10 shots/match11.8 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Bournemouth show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Bournemouth's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

10 shots/match▲ShotsBrentford · Bournemouth13.7 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricBrentfordBournemouthBaseline
Shots10 shots/match13.7 shots/match11.8 shots/match
Shots against12.8 shots/match11.9 shots/match11.8 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Both teams have elevated fouls records

weak

Each team's season fouls average is above the competition baseline.

11.4 fouls/match▲FoulsBrentford · Bournemouth12.6 fouls/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricBrentfordBournemouthBaseline
Fouls11.4 fouls/match12.6 fouls/match10.3 fouls/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Brentford favored in 3 of 14 directional metrics · Bournemouth in 5 · 6 too close

1.56 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 18/181.5 goals/match
1.44 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 18/181.83 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
10 shots/matchShotsseason · 18/18▲13.7 shots/match
12.8 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 18/18▲11.9 shots/match
4.11 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 18/18▲5.11 shots/match
4.22 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 18/184.78 shots/match
45%Possessionseason · 18/1852.4%
4.89 corners/matchCornersseason · 18/185.89 corners/match
5.11 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 18/18▲4.11 corners/match
2 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 18/182.5 cards/match
11.4 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 18/1812.6 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
17%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 18/18▲28%
78%Scoring frequencyseason · 18/1878%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Brentford27.5
Bournemouth72.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Brentford46.7
Bournemouth72.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Brentford38.3
Bournemouth27.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Brentford17.5
Bournemouth82.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Brentford68.8
Bournemouth90
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Brentford47.5
Bournemouth87.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Brentford49.4
Bournemouth85
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.4 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51.2 goals/match
1.2 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/52 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
7.8 shots/matchShots5/5▲13.6 shots/match
3.4 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲5.4 shots/match
49.6%Possession5/550.8%
4 corners/matchCorners5/56 corners/match
2.2 cards/matchCards5/51.8 cards/match
10 fouls/matchFouls5/512 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.7 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.3 goals/match
1.4 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/102.2 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.1 shots/matchShots10/10▲14.7 shots/match
4.2 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲5.6 shots/match
48.3%Possession10/1053.9%
4.5 corners/matchCorners10/106.1 corners/match
2.1 cards/matchCards10/102.5 cards/match
10.7 fouls/matchFouls10/1013 fouls/match

Window

Season

18 / 18 matches
1.56 goals/matchGoals scored18/181.5 goals/match
1.44 goals/match▲Goals allowed18/181.83 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10 shots/matchShots18/18▲13.7 shots/match
4.11 shots/matchShots on target18/18▲5.11 shots/match
45%Possession18/1852.4%
4.89 corners/matchCorners18/185.89 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards18/182.5 cards/match
11.4 fouls/matchFouls18/1812.6 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

9 / 9 matches
2.22 goals/match▲Goals scored9/91.78 goals/match
1.11 goals/match▲Goals allowed9/93 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.1 shots/matchShots9/9▲13.6 shots/match
4.78 shots/matchShots on target9/9▲5.78 shots/match
41.4%Possession9/948.4%
3.56 corners/matchCorners9/96.56 corners/match
1.78 cards/matchCards9/93 cards/match
11.3 fouls/matchFouls9/912.9 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples18 / 18home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 27 Dec 2025, 19:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsBrentfordBournemouth
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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