PitchMath
Premier League · 2025Tue, 6 Jan 2026, 20:00 UTCFull timeLondon StadiumFull-time recap
1–2Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricWest HamNottingham Forest
Shots14 shots/match▲13 shots/match
Shots on target3 shots/match5 shots/match▲
Possession47%53%
Corners6 corners/match5 corners/match
Fouls15 fouls/match9 fouls/match
Yellow cards3 cards/match0 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: West Ham's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for West Ham, Nottingham Forest. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

West Ham's recent record differs from the season

moderate

West Ham's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.05 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.6 goals/match1.05 goals/match1.4 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for West Ham, Nottingham Forest.

3.21 days▲Rest daysWest Ham · Nottingham Forest3.31 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricWest HamNottingham ForestBaseline
Rest days3.21 days3.31 days—
Matches last 14 days3 matches3 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Nottingham Forest have a visible away split

moderate

Nottingham Forest's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

10.1 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season12.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots10.1 shots/match12.4 shots/match12.1 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1West Ham
0Draws
0Nottingham Forest
Nottingham Forest — West Ham · Premier League0–3

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

West Ham favored in 1 of 14 directional metrics · Nottingham Forest in 8 · 5 too close

1.05 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 21/211 goals/match
2.05 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 21/21▲1.62 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
10 shots/matchShotsseason · 21/21▲12.4 shots/match
15.1 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 21/21▲12.8 shots/match
3.33 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 21/21▲4.05 shots/match
5.52 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 21/21▲4.33 shots/match
43.3%Possessionseason · 21/2149.8%
5.33 corners/matchCornersseason · 21/215.43 corners/match
6.19 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 21/21▲4.48 corners/match
1.76 cards/matchCardsseason · 21/21▲1.62 cards/match
10.9 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 21/2111.2 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
5%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 21/21▲14%
62%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 21/2152%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

West Ham22.5
Nottingham Forest42.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

West Ham22.5
Nottingham Forest36.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

West Ham4.2
Nottingham Forest29.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

West Ham37.5
Nottingham Forest62.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

West Ham52.5
Nottingham Forest50
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

West Ham62.5
Nottingham Forest72.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

West Ham42.5
Nottingham Forest62.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
0.6 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲0.8 goals/match
2.2 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1.8 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
9.6 shots/matchShots5/5▲12.6 shots/match
2.4 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲4 shots/match
46.2%Possession5/546.8%
4.6 corners/matchCorners5/55.6 corners/match
1.6 cards/matchCards5/51.6 cards/match
10.8 fouls/matchFouls5/510.8 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
0.9 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.1 goals/match
2 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.4 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
9.5 shots/matchShots10/10▲12.9 shots/match
2.5 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲4.2 shots/match
40.7%Possession10/1046.8%
4.9 corners/matchCorners10/105.8 corners/match
1.9 cards/matchCards10/101.4 cards/match
11.1 fouls/matchFouls10/1010.8 fouls/match

Window

Season

21 / 21 matches
1.05 goals/matchGoals scored21/211 goals/match
2.05 goals/matchGoals allowed21/21▲1.62 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10 shots/matchShots21/21▲12.4 shots/match
3.33 shots/matchShots on target21/21▲4.05 shots/match
43.3%Possession21/2149.8%
5.33 corners/matchCorners21/215.43 corners/match
1.76 cards/matchCards21/211.62 cards/match
10.9 fouls/matchFouls21/2111.2 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

11 / 11 matches
1.18 goals/match▲Goals scored11/110.82 goals/match
2.27 goals/matchGoals allowed11/11▲1.55 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.5 shots/matchShots11/1110.1 shots/match
3.55 shots/matchShots on target11/11▲3.91 shots/match
43%Possession11/1148%
5.91 corners/matchCorners11/114.36 corners/match
1.82 cards/matchCards11/111.91 cards/match
11.3 fouls/matchFouls11/1111.5 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

3.21 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/13.31 days
3 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/13 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples21 / 21home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Wed, 7 Jan 2026, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsWest HamNottingham Forest
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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