PitchMath
Premier League · 2025Sat, 3 Jan 2026, 17:30 UTCFull timeVitality StadiumFull-time recap
2–3Full-time recap

Arsenal

LWWWW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricBournemouthArsenal
Shots15 shots/match▲12 shots/match
Shots on target3 shots/match5 shots/match▲
Possession43%57%
Corners7 corners/match5 corners/match
Fouls13 fouls/match8 fouls/match
Yellow cards3 cards/match1 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Bournemouth's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Bournemouth, Arsenal. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Bournemouth's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Bournemouth's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.55 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2 goals/match1.55 goals/match1.39 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Bournemouth, Arsenal.

3.92 days▲Rest daysBournemouth · Arsenal3.89 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricBournemouthArsenalBaseline
Rest days3.92 days3.89 days—
Matches last 14 days2 matches3 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Both teams have elevated corners records

moderate

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

5.8 corners/match▲CornersBournemouth · Arsenal5.75 corners/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricBournemouthArsenalBaseline
Corners5.8 corners/match5.75 corners/match4.9 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Bournemouth favored in 0 of 14 directional metrics · Arsenal in 9 · 5 too close

1.55 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 20/20▲2 goals/match
1.9 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 20/20▲0.7 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
13.9 shots/matchShotsseason · 20/20▲15.2 shots/match
12.2 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 20/20▲7.9 shots/match
5.05 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 20/205.1 shots/match
4.7 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 20/20▲2.3 shots/match
51%Possessionseason · 20/2058.6%
5.8 corners/matchCornersseason · 20/205.75 corners/match
4.55 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 20/20▲3.15 corners/match
2.45 cards/matchCardsseason · 20/20▲1.35 cards/match
12.6 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 20/209.95 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
25%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 20/20▲45%
80%Scoring frequencyseason · 20/20▲95%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Bournemouth52.5
Arsenal82.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Bournemouth74.2
Arsenal89.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Bournemouth25.8
Arsenal97.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Bournemouth87.5
Arsenal77.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Bournemouth88.8
Arsenal20
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Bournemouth87.5
Arsenal82.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Bournemouth83.8
Arsenal73.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
2 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲2.4 goals/match
2.8 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
16.4 shots/matchShots5/5▲17.4 shots/match
5.8 shots/match▲Shots on target5/54.4 shots/match
47.2%Possession5/558%
6.8 corners/matchCorners5/55.2 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards5/51.4 cards/match
11.2 fouls/matchFouls5/59 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.4 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲2.2 goals/match
2.4 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15.8 shots/matchShots10/1015.9 shots/match
5.5 shots/matchShots on target10/105.7 shots/match
51.1%Possession10/1058.9%
6.1 corners/matchCorners10/104.2 corners/match
2.4 cards/matchCards10/101.7 cards/match
12.7 fouls/matchFouls10/109.7 fouls/match

Window

Season

20 / 20 matches
1.55 goals/matchGoals scored20/20▲2 goals/match
1.9 goals/matchGoals allowed20/20▲0.7 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.9 shots/matchShots20/20▲15.2 shots/match
5.05 shots/matchShots on target20/205.1 shots/match
51%Possession20/2058.6%
5.8 corners/matchCorners20/205.75 corners/match
2.45 cards/matchCards20/201.35 cards/match
12.6 fouls/matchFouls20/209.95 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

10 / 10 matches
1.3 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.4 goals/match
0.9 goals/matchGoals allowed10/100.9 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.9 shots/matchShots10/1013.3 shots/match
4.3 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲5.1 shots/match
55.1%Possession10/1056.8%
5.4 corners/matchCorners10/105.6 corners/match
2.1 cards/matchCards10/102 cards/match
12.3 fouls/matchFouls10/1010.2 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

3.92 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/13.89 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/13 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples20 / 20home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 3 Jan 2026, 21:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsBournemouthArsenal
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

Make a graphic from this match

Creator Studio builds a branded post from this match's recorded data, with its evidence grade and source cutoff carried into the export.

Create a graphic from this match