PitchMath
Premier League · 2025Wed, 7 Jan 2026, 20:15 UTCFull timeTurf MoorFull-time recap

Burnley

LDDLL
2–2Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricBurnleyManchester United
Shots7 shots/match30 shots/match▲
Shots on target1 shots/match10 shots/match▲
Possession35%65%
Corners2 corners/match6 corners/match
Fouls9 fouls/match8 fouls/match
Yellow cards2 cards/match0 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Manchester United's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. A second useful context is: Manchester United's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Manchester United show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

Manchester United's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

8.9 shots/match▲ShotsBurnley · Manchester United16.7 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricBurnleyManchester UnitedBaseline
Shots8.9 shots/match16.7 shots/match12.2 shots/match
Shots against16.3 shots/match11.1 shots/match12.2 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Manchester United's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Manchester United's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.71 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.2 goals/match1.71 goals/match1.45 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Burnley, Manchester United.

4.22 days▲Rest daysBurnley · Manchester United3.32 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricBurnleyManchester UnitedBaseline
Rest days4.22 days3.32 days—
Matches last 14 days3 matches3 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Burnley
0Draws
1Manchester United
Manchester United — Burnley · Premier League3–2

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Burnley favored in 1 of 14 directional metrics · Manchester United in 9 · 4 too close

1.05 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 21/21▲1.71 goals/match
1.95 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 21/21▲1.52 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
8.9 shots/matchShotsseason · 21/21▲16.7 shots/match
16.3 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 21/21▲11.1 shots/match
3 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 21/21▲5.67 shots/match
5.62 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 21/21▲3.76 shots/match
41.2%Possessionseason · 21/2154%
3.67 corners/matchCornersseason · 21/214.76 corners/match
6 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 21/21▲4.76 corners/match
1.71 cards/matchCardsseason · 21/21▲1.43 cards/match
10 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 21/219.48 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
14%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 21/2110%
67%Scoring frequencyseason · 21/21▲86%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Burnley2.5
Manchester United77.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Burnley9.2
Manchester United94.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Burnley5
Manchester United60.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Burnley12.5
Manchester United97.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Burnley42.5
Manchester United10
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Burnley12.5
Manchester United42.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Burnley15
Manchester United62.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
0.8 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.2 goals/match
1.6 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1.2 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
9.4 shots/matchShots5/5▲17 shots/match
1.8 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲5.6 shots/match
42.2%Possession5/553.2%
3.6 corners/matchCorners5/55 corners/match
1.8 cards/matchCards5/51 cards/match
10.8 fouls/matchFouls5/57.4 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
0.8 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.7 goals/match
1.9 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.4 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
9.7 shots/matchShots10/10▲19.3 shots/match
2.8 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲6.3 shots/match
44.4%Possession10/1057.7%
4.7 corners/matchCorners10/105.8 corners/match
1.7 cards/matchCards10/101.5 cards/match
10.2 fouls/matchFouls10/1010.3 fouls/match

Window

Season

21 / 21 matches
1.05 goals/matchGoals scored21/21▲1.71 goals/match
1.95 goals/matchGoals allowed21/21▲1.52 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
8.9 shots/matchShots21/21▲16.7 shots/match
3 shots/matchShots on target21/21▲5.67 shots/match
41.2%Possession21/2154%
3.67 corners/matchCorners21/214.76 corners/match
1.71 cards/matchCards21/211.43 cards/match
10 fouls/matchFouls21/219.48 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

11 / 11 matches
0.91 goals/matchGoals scored11/11▲1.64 goals/match
1.36 goals/match▲Goals allowed11/111.73 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
9.27 shots/matchShots11/11▲15.6 shots/match
2.64 shots/matchShots on target11/11▲5.27 shots/match
42.5%Possession11/1154.1%
3.27 corners/matchCorners11/114.73 corners/match
1.36 cards/matchCards11/111.27 cards/match
9.64 fouls/matchFouls11/118.64 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

4.22 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/13.32 days
3 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/13 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples21 / 21home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Thu, 8 Jan 2026, 00:15 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsBurnleyManchester United
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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