PitchMath
Premier League · 2025Thu, 1 Jan 2026, 17:30 UTCFull timeAnfieldFull-time recap
0–0Full-time recap

Leeds

WDDWD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricLiverpoolLeeds
Shots19 shots/match▲4 shots/match
Shots on target4 shots/match▲2 shots/match
Possession68%32%
Corners8 corners/match3 corners/match
Fouls10 fouls/match8 fouls/match
Yellow cards0 cards/match▲2 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Leeds's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Leeds's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Leeds's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Leeds's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.32 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.8 goals/match1.32 goals/match1.39 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Leeds have a visible away split

moderate

Leeds's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

10.1 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season12.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots10.1 shots/match12.8 shots/match12.2 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Liverpool have recorded the higher season possession share.

61.6%▲PossessionLiverpool · Leeds46.1%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 15.5 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricLiverpoolLeedsBaseline
Possession61.6%46.1%51.1%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Liverpool
1Draws
0Leeds
Leeds — Liverpool · Premier League3–3

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Liverpool favored in 8 of 14 directional metrics · Leeds in 2 · 4 too close

1.58 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 19/191.32 goals/match
1.37 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 19/191.68 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
15.3 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 19/1912.8 shots/match
11 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 19/1911.6 shots/match
4.32 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 19/194.05 shots/match
3.79 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 19/194.05 shots/match
61.6%Possessionseason · 19/1946.1%
5.26 corners/matchCornersseason · 19/194.42 corners/match
4.63 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 19/19▲3.63 corners/match
1.74 cards/matchCardsseason · 19/19▲1.53 cards/match
9.74 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 19/1910.2 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
32%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 19/1916%
84%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 19/1968%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Liverpool97.5
Leeds37.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Liverpool73.3
Leeds50.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Liverpool70
Leeds41.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Liverpool67.5
Leeds92.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Liverpool31.2
Leeds32.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Liverpool67.5
Leeds27.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Liverpool57.5
Leeds48.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.8 goals/matchGoals scored5/51.8 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.2 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15 shots/match▲Shots5/514.2 shots/match
4.6 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲5 shots/match
60.8%Possession5/546%
5.2 corners/matchCorners5/55.8 corners/match
1.4 cards/matchCards5/51.2 cards/match
7.8 fouls/matchFouls5/59 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.4 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.6 goals/match
1.2 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.8 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15.1 shots/match▲Shots10/1012.6 shots/match
4.1 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲4.4 shots/match
60.7%Possession10/1044.9%
5.1 corners/matchCorners10/104.8 corners/match
1.6 cards/matchCards10/101.5 cards/match
10.2 fouls/matchFouls10/1010.2 fouls/match

Window

Season

19 / 19 matches
1.58 goals/match▲Goals scored19/191.32 goals/match
1.37 goals/match▲Goals allowed19/191.68 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15.3 shots/match▲Shots19/1912.8 shots/match
4.32 shots/match▲Shots on target19/194.05 shots/match
61.6%Possession19/1946.1%
5.26 corners/matchCorners19/194.42 corners/match
1.74 cards/matchCards19/191.53 cards/match
9.74 fouls/matchFouls19/1910.2 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

10 / 10 matches
1.5 goals/match▲Goals scored10/100.8 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/102 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
16.9 shots/match▲Shots10/1010.1 shots/match
4.6 shots/match▲Shots on target10/103.3 shots/match
61.5%Possession10/1046.5%
5.5 corners/matchCorners10/103.7 corners/match
1.1 cards/matchCards10/101.1 cards/match
9 fouls/matchFouls10/109.7 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

5.1 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/14.15 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples19 / 19home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Thu, 1 Jan 2026, 21:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsLiverpoolLeeds
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

Make a graphic from this match

Creator Studio builds a branded post from this match's recorded data, with its evidence grade and source cutoff carried into the export.

Create a graphic from this match