PitchMath
Premier League · 2025Sat, 29 Nov 2025, 15:00 UTCFull timeEtihad StadiumFull-time recap
3–2Full-time recap

Leeds

LWLLL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricManchester CityLeeds
Shots18 shots/match▲9 shots/match
Shots on target9 shots/match▲4 shots/match
Possession62%38%
Corners8 corners/match1 corners/match
Fouls17 fouls/match11 fouls/match
Yellow cards4 cards/match1 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Leeds's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. A second useful context is: Leeds's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Leeds have a visible away split

moderate

Leeds's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

8.86 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season11.9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots8.86 shots/match11.9 shots/match12 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Leeds's recent record differs from the season

weak

Leeds's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.2 goals/match1 goals/match1.32 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Manchester City have recorded the higher season possession share.

57.6%▲PossessionManchester City · Leeds47.5%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 10.2 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricManchester CityLeedsBaseline
Possession57.6%47.5%50.2%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Manchester City favored in 8 of 14 directional metrics · Leeds in 2 · 4 too close

2.08 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 13/131 goals/match
0.92 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 13/131.92 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
14.4 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 13/1311.9 shots/match
9.15 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 13/1311.4 shots/match
5.38 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 13/133.62 shots/match
3.23 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 13/134.31 shots/match
57.6%Possessionseason · 13/1347.5%
6.08 corners/matchCornersseason · 13/133.92 corners/match
4.15 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 13/13▲3.62 corners/match
1.92 cards/matchCardsseason · 13/13▲1.69 cards/match
9.85 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 13/1310.7 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
38%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 13/1315%
85%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 13/1362%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Manchester City82.5
Leeds37.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Manchester City89.2
Leeds29.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Manchester City84.2
Leeds38.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Manchester City67.5
Leeds77.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Manchester City28.8
Leeds42.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Manchester City87.5
Leeds22.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Manchester City66.2
Leeds40
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
2 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51.2 goals/match
1.2 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/52.4 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
16.4 shots/match▲Shots5/510.2 shots/match
6.2 shots/match▲Shots on target5/53.8 shots/match
55.8%Possession5/546.2%
7.8 corners/matchCorners5/53.6 corners/match
3 cards/matchCards5/52.2 cards/match
12.6 fouls/matchFouls5/511.8 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
2.2 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.2 goals/match
0.8 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/102 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15 shots/match▲Shots10/1012.1 shots/match
5.9 shots/match▲Shots on target10/104.2 shots/match
56.7%Possession10/1048.8%
6.5 corners/matchCorners10/103.7 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards10/101.9 cards/match
10 fouls/matchFouls10/1011.2 fouls/match

Window

Season

13 / 13 matches
2.08 goals/match▲Goals scored13/131 goals/match
0.92 goals/match▲Goals allowed13/131.92 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.4 shots/match▲Shots13/1311.9 shots/match
5.38 shots/match▲Shots on target13/133.62 shots/match
57.6%Possession13/1347.5%
6.08 corners/matchCorners13/133.92 corners/match
1.92 cards/matchCards13/131.69 cards/match
9.85 fouls/matchFouls13/1310.7 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

7 / 7 matches
2.71 goals/match▲Goals scored7/70.86 goals/match
0.86 goals/match▲Goals allowed7/72.57 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15.7 shots/match▲Shots7/78.86 shots/match
6.86 shots/match▲Shots on target7/73 shots/match
57.9%Possession7/747.6%
7.71 corners/matchCorners7/73.14 corners/match
1.43 cards/matchCards7/71.29 cards/match
9.57 fouls/matchFouls7/710.1 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.9 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.04 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples13 / 13home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 29 Nov 2025, 19:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsManchester CityLeeds
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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