PitchMath
Premier League · 2025Sat, 29 Nov 2025, 15:00 UTCFull timeStadium of LightFull-time recap
3–2Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricSunderlandBournemouth
Shots12 shots/match18 shots/match▲
Shots on target6 shots/match6 shots/match
Possession43%57%
Corners6 corners/match3 corners/match
Fouls14 fouls/match13 fouls/match
Yellow cards5 cards/match5 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Sunderland's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Bournemouth's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Sunderland's recent record differs from the season

weak

Sunderland's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.31 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.6 goals/match1.31 goals/match1.32 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Bournemouth show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Bournemouth's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

9.77 shots/match▲ShotsSunderland · Bournemouth13.7 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricSunderlandBournemouthBaseline
Shots9.77 shots/match13.7 shots/match12 shots/match
Shots against14.5 shots/match11.3 shots/match11.5 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Sunderland have a visible home split

moderate

Sunderland's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

11.3 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season9.77 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots11.3 shots/match9.77 shots/match12 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Sunderland favored in 2 of 14 directional metrics · Bournemouth in 5 · 7 too close

1.31 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 13/13▲1.62 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 13/131.77 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
9.77 shots/matchShotsseason · 13/13▲13.7 shots/match
14.5 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 13/13▲11.3 shots/match
2.92 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 13/13▲5 shots/match
4.69 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 13/134.77 shots/match
43.2%Possessionseason · 13/1353.1%
3.54 corners/matchCornersseason · 13/135.85 corners/match
4.46 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 13/134.46 corners/match
2.15 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 13/132.77 cards/match
10.2 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 13/1312.8 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
31%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 13/1331%
69%Scoring frequencyseason · 13/13▲85%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Sunderland15
Bournemouth72.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Sunderland22.5
Bournemouth75.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Sunderland35.8
Bournemouth32.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Sunderland22.5
Bournemouth87.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Sunderland52.5
Bournemouth92.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Sunderland12.5
Bournemouth82.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Sunderland15.6
Bournemouth80.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.6 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51.4 goals/match
1.4 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/52.4 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
9.8 shots/matchShots5/5▲15.8 shots/match
3.4 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲5.8 shots/match
42.8%Possession5/557%
3.4 corners/matchCorners5/56.2 corners/match
2.8 cards/matchCards5/53.2 cards/match
12.6 fouls/matchFouls5/514 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.2 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.7 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.9 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
9.6 shots/matchShots10/10▲13.4 shots/match
2.9 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲5.2 shots/match
41.3%Possession10/1055.3%
3.5 corners/matchCorners10/105.3 corners/match
2.4 cards/matchCards10/102.8 cards/match
10.8 fouls/matchFouls10/1013 fouls/match

Window

Season

13 / 13 matches
1.31 goals/matchGoals scored13/13▲1.62 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed13/131.77 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
9.77 shots/matchShots13/13▲13.7 shots/match
2.92 shots/matchShots on target13/13▲5 shots/match
43.2%Possession13/1353.1%
3.54 corners/matchCorners13/135.85 corners/match
2.15 cards/matchCards13/132.77 cards/match
10.2 fouls/matchFouls13/1312.8 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

7 / 7 matches
2 goals/match▲Goals scored7/71.57 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed7/72.71 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.3 shots/matchShots7/7▲12.6 shots/match
3.57 shots/matchShots on target7/7▲4.71 shots/match
42.9%Possession7/748.9%
4 corners/matchCorners7/75.71 corners/match
2.29 cards/matchCards7/73.14 cards/match
10.7 fouls/matchFouls7/713.7 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples13 / 13home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 29 Nov 2025, 19:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsSunderlandBournemouth
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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