PitchMath
Premier League · 2025Sat, 29 Nov 2025, 15:00 UTCFull timeBrentford Community StadiumFull-time recap
3–1Full-time recap

Burnley

WWLLL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricBrentfordBurnley
Shots14 shots/match▲6 shots/match
Shots on target4 shots/match▲2 shots/match
Possession52%48%
Corners5 corners/match6 corners/match
Fouls7 fouls/match7 fouls/match
Yellow cards0 cards/match▲2 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Brentford's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Burnley's away-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Brentford's recent record differs from the season

weak

Brentford's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.62 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2 goals/match1.62 goals/match1.32 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Burnley have a visible away split

moderate

Burnley's away-only shot average is above their full-season average.

9.57 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots9.57 shots/match8 shots/match12 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Brentford show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Brentford's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

10.8 shots/match▲ShotsBrentford · Burnley8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricBrentfordBurnleyBaseline
Shots10.8 shots/match8 shots/match12 shots/match
Shots against11.8 shots/match17 shots/match11.5 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Brentford favored in 8 of 14 directional metrics · Burnley in 1 · 5 too close

1.62 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 13/131.15 goals/match
1.54 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 13/132.08 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
10.8 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 13/138 shots/match
11.8 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 13/1317 shots/match
4.38 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 13/133 shots/match
3.54 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 13/135.69 shots/match
43.2%Possessionseason · 13/1339.5%
5.23 corners/matchCornersseason · 13/132.85 corners/match
4.62 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 13/136.62 corners/match
1.92 cards/matchCardsseason · 13/13▲1.77 cards/match
11.9 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 13/139.92 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
15%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 13/1315%
85%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 13/1369%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Brentford15
Burnley2.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Brentford56.7
Burnley15
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Brentford50.8
Burnley5.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Brentford72.5
Burnley12.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Brentford63.8
Burnley25
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Brentford47.5
Burnley2.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Brentford55
Burnley8.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
2 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51.2 goals/match
1.6 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/52.4 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.4 shots/match▲Shots5/58.8 shots/match
5 shots/match▲Shots on target5/53.6 shots/match
47%Possession5/547.6%
5 corners/matchCorners5/53 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards5/51.6 cards/match
11.4 fouls/matchFouls5/510 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.8 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.1 goals/match
1.5 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/102.1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.5 shots/match▲Shots10/107.7 shots/match
4.8 shots/match▲Shots on target10/103 shots/match
44.6%Possession10/1040.1%
5.7 corners/matchCorners10/102.7 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards10/101.8 cards/match
11.7 fouls/matchFouls10/1010.3 fouls/match

Window

Season

13 / 13 matches
1.62 goals/match▲Goals scored13/131.15 goals/match
1.54 goals/match▲Goals allowed13/132.08 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.8 shots/match▲Shots13/138 shots/match
4.38 shots/match▲Shots on target13/133 shots/match
43.2%Possession13/1339.5%
5.23 corners/matchCorners13/132.85 corners/match
1.92 cards/matchCards13/131.77 cards/match
11.9 fouls/matchFouls13/139.92 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

7 / 7 matches
2.14 goals/match▲Goals scored7/71.43 goals/match
1.14 goals/match▲Goals allowed7/73 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.1 shots/match▲Shots7/79.57 shots/match
4.86 shots/match▲Shots on target7/73.86 shots/match
38.1%Possession7/742.1%
4.29 corners/matchCorners7/73.57 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards7/71.86 cards/match
12.1 fouls/matchFouls7/79.43 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.1 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples13 / 13home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 29 Nov 2025, 19:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsBrentfordBurnley
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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