PitchMath
Premier League · 2025Wed, 3 Dec 2025, 19:30 UTCFull timeTurf MoorFull-time recap

Burnley

WLLLL
0–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricBurnleyCrystal Palace
Shots11 shots/match▲3 shots/match
Shots on target4 shots/match▲3 shots/match
Possession58%42%
Corners3 corners/match3 corners/match
Fouls9 fouls/match8 fouls/match
Yellow cards0 cards/match0 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Burnley's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Crystal Palace. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Burnley's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Burnley's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.07 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.6 goals/match1.07 goals/match1.39 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Crystal Palace.

4.19 days▲Rest daysBurnley · Crystal Palace3.31 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricBurnleyCrystal PalaceBaseline
Rest days4.19 days3.31 days—
Matches last 14 days2 matches2 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Burnley show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Burnley's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

8.21 shots/match▲ShotsBurnley · Crystal Palace11.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricBurnleyCrystal PalaceBaseline
Shots8.21 shots/match11.6 shots/match12 shots/match
Shots against16 shots/match10.9 shots/match11.5 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Burnley favored in 1 of 14 directional metrics · Crystal Palace in 9 · 4 too close

1.07 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 14/14▲1.29 goals/match
2 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 14/14▲0.79 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
8.21 shots/matchShotsseason · 14/14▲11.6 shots/match
16 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 14/14▲10.9 shots/match
3.07 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 14/14▲4.21 shots/match
5.5 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 14/14▲3.29 shots/match
40.9%Possessionseason · 14/1442.6%
2.86 corners/matchCornersseason · 14/143.79 corners/match
6.36 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 14/14▲5.21 corners/match
1.64 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 14/141.79 cards/match
9.86 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 14/1410.4 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
14%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 14/14▲50%
64%Scoring frequencyseason · 14/14▲71%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Burnley2.5
Crystal Palace12.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Burnley10
Crystal Palace44.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Burnley7.5
Crystal Palace85
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Burnley12.5
Crystal Palace92.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Burnley22.5
Crystal Palace36.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Burnley2.5
Crystal Palace17.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Burnley8.8
Crystal Palace37.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
0.6 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.2 goals/match
2.2 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲0.4 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
8.8 shots/matchShots5/5▲9.4 shots/match
3 shots/matchShots on target5/53 shots/match
50.6%Possession5/543.2%
3 corners/matchCorners5/54.2 corners/match
1.6 cards/matchCards5/51.4 cards/match
10.4 fouls/matchFouls5/59.6 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.1 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.4 goals/match
2.1 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
8.5 shots/matchShots10/10▲12.3 shots/match
3.4 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲4.1 shots/match
44%Possession10/1042.9%
2.9 corners/matchCorners10/104.4 corners/match
1.5 cards/matchCards10/101.5 cards/match
10.3 fouls/matchFouls10/109.8 fouls/match

Window

Season

14 / 14 matches
1.07 goals/matchGoals scored14/14▲1.29 goals/match
2 goals/matchGoals allowed14/14▲0.79 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
8.21 shots/matchShots14/14▲11.6 shots/match
3.07 shots/matchShots on target14/14▲4.21 shots/match
40.9%Possession14/1442.6%
2.86 corners/matchCorners14/143.79 corners/match
1.64 cards/matchCards14/141.79 cards/match
9.86 fouls/matchFouls14/1410.4 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

7 / 7 matches
0.71 goals/matchGoals scored7/7▲1.29 goals/match
1 goals/matchGoals allowed7/7▲0.57 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
6.86 shots/matchShots7/7▲10 shots/match
2.29 shots/matchShots on target7/7▲3.86 shots/match
39.6%Possession7/742.4%
2.14 corners/matchCorners7/73.57 corners/match
1.43 cards/matchCards7/72.14 cards/match
10.3 fouls/matchFouls7/710.7 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

4.19 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/13.31 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples14 / 14home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Wed, 3 Dec 2025, 23:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsBurnleyCrystal Palace
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

Make a graphic from this match

Creator Studio builds a branded post from this match's recorded data, with its evidence grade and source cutoff carried into the export.

Create a graphic from this match