PitchMath
Premier League · 2025Sun, 30 Nov 2025, 12:00 UTCFull timeSelhurst ParkFull-time recap
1–2Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricCrystal PalaceManchester United
Shots14 shots/match14 shots/match
Shots on target3 shots/match6 shots/match▲
Possession44%56%
Corners4 corners/match4 corners/match
Fouls14 fouls/match14 fouls/match
Yellow cards3 cards/match2 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Manchester United's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Manchester United's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Manchester United's recent record differs from the season

weak

Manchester United's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.62 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2 goals/match1.62 goals/match1.31 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Manchester United have a visible away split

moderate

Manchester United's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

12.1 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season15.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots12.1 shots/match15.2 shots/match11.8 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Manchester United show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Manchester United's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

12.2 shots/match▲ShotsCrystal Palace · Manchester United15.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricCrystal PalaceManchester UnitedBaseline
Shots12.2 shots/match15.2 shots/match11.8 shots/match
Shots against10.9 shots/match11.1 shots/match11.3 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Crystal Palace favored in 3 of 14 directional metrics · Manchester United in 6 · 5 too close

1.31 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 13/13▲1.62 goals/match
0.85 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 13/131.54 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
12.2 shots/matchShotsseason · 13/13▲15.2 shots/match
10.9 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 13/1311.1 shots/match
4.31 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 13/13▲5.23 shots/match
3.23 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 13/133.85 shots/match
42.7%Possessionseason · 13/1352.5%
3.85 corners/matchCornersseason · 13/134.23 corners/match
5.38 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 13/13▲4.69 corners/match
1.92 cards/matchCardsseason · 13/13▲1.46 cards/match
10.5 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 13/139.38 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
46%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 13/138%
69%Scoring frequencyseason · 13/13▲77%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Crystal Palace7.5
Manchester United62.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Crystal Palace55.8
Manchester United85.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Crystal Palace85
Manchester United55.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Crystal Palace92.5
Manchester United97.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Crystal Palace48.8
Manchester United7.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Crystal Palace17.5
Manchester United32.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Crystal Palace46.2
Manchester United55
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲2 goals/match
0.6 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.6 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.2 shots/matchShots5/5▲15 shots/match
2.6 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲6 shots/match
42.8%Possession5/554.8%
4.2 corners/matchCorners5/54.4 corners/match
1.4 cards/matchCards5/51.6 cards/match
10.2 fouls/matchFouls5/57.6 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.3 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.7 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.6 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.4 shots/matchShots10/1013.9 shots/match
4.4 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲5.2 shots/match
44.3%Possession10/1051.2%
4.6 corners/matchCorners10/103.9 corners/match
1.6 cards/matchCards10/101.6 cards/match
10 fouls/matchFouls10/109.3 fouls/match

Window

Season

13 / 13 matches
1.31 goals/matchGoals scored13/13▲1.62 goals/match
0.85 goals/match▲Goals allowed13/131.54 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.2 shots/matchShots13/13▲15.2 shots/match
4.31 shots/matchShots on target13/13▲5.23 shots/match
42.7%Possession13/1352.5%
3.85 corners/matchCorners13/134.23 corners/match
1.92 cards/matchCards13/131.46 cards/match
10.5 fouls/matchFouls13/139.38 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

7 / 7 matches
1.29 goals/matchGoals scored7/7▲1.43 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed7/71.86 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.1 shots/match▲Shots7/712.1 shots/match
4.57 shots/match▲Shots on target7/74.29 shots/match
42.9%Possession7/750.7%
4 corners/matchCorners7/74 corners/match
1.43 cards/matchCards7/71.29 cards/match
10 fouls/matchFouls7/79.14 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.88 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/15.67 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples13 / 13home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 30 Nov 2025, 16:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsCrystal PalaceManchester United
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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