PitchMath
Premier League · 2025Thu, 4 Dec 2025, 20:00 UTCFull timeOld TraffordFull-time recap
1–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricManchester UnitedWest Ham
Shots17 shots/match▲11 shots/match
Shots on target4 shots/match▲3 shots/match
Possession65%35%
Corners6 corners/match6 corners/match
Fouls13 fouls/match9 fouls/match
Yellow cards2 cards/match2 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: West Ham's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Manchester United's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

West Ham's recent record differs from the season

moderate

West Ham's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.14 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.8 goals/match1.14 goals/match1.39 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Manchester United show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

Manchester United's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

15.3 shots/match▲ShotsManchester United · West Ham9.86 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricManchester UnitedWest HamBaseline
Shots15.3 shots/match9.86 shots/match12 shots/match
Shots against11.1 shots/match15.4 shots/match11.5 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Manchester United have a visible home split

moderate

Manchester United's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

18.4 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season15.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots18.4 shots/match15.3 shots/match12 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Manchester United favored in 9 of 14 directional metrics · West Ham in 0 · 5 too close

1.57 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 14/141.14 goals/match
1.5 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 14/142 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
15.3 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 14/149.86 shots/match
11.1 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 14/1415.4 shots/match
5.14 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 14/143.57 shots/match
3.79 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 14/145.43 shots/match
53.4%Possessionseason · 14/1443.2%
4.36 corners/matchCornersseason · 14/145.57 corners/match
4.79 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 14/146.5 corners/match
1.5 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 14/141.86 cards/match
9.64 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 14/1410.6 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
7%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 14/147%
79%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 14/1464%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Manchester United77.5
West Ham22.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Manchester United84.2
West Ham25
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Manchester United60
West Ham8.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Manchester United97.5
West Ham22.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Manchester United8.8
West Ham52.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Manchester United32.5
West Ham67.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Manchester United54.4
West Ham42.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.4 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.8 goals/match
1.4 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.6 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15.8 shots/match▲Shots5/510.6 shots/match
5 shots/match▲Shots on target5/54 shots/match
59%Possession5/536.6%
5.4 corners/matchCorners5/55.8 corners/match
1.6 cards/matchCards5/52.2 cards/match
9.4 fouls/matchFouls5/510.2 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.8 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.2 goals/match
1.4 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.7 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.4 shots/match▲Shots10/109.5 shots/match
5.4 shots/match▲Shots on target10/103 shots/match
52.2%Possession10/1042.3%
4.1 corners/matchCorners10/105.5 corners/match
1.8 cards/matchCards10/102.4 cards/match
9.8 fouls/matchFouls10/1011.7 fouls/match

Window

Season

14 / 14 matches
1.57 goals/match▲Goals scored14/141.14 goals/match
1.5 goals/match▲Goals allowed14/142 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15.3 shots/match▲Shots14/149.86 shots/match
5.14 shots/match▲Shots on target14/143.57 shots/match
53.4%Possession14/1443.2%
4.36 corners/matchCorners14/145.57 corners/match
1.5 cards/matchCards14/141.86 cards/match
9.64 fouls/matchFouls14/1410.6 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

7 / 7 matches
1.71 goals/match▲Goals scored7/71.14 goals/match
1.14 goals/match▲Goals allowed7/71.57 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
18.4 shots/match▲Shots7/79.57 shots/match
6 shots/match▲Shots on target7/73.29 shots/match
56.1%Possession7/743.3%
4.71 corners/matchCorners7/74.86 corners/match
1.71 cards/matchCards7/72 cards/match
10.1 fouls/matchFouls7/710.9 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

4.33 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/14.25 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples14 / 14home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Fri, 5 Dec 2025, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsManchester UnitedWest Ham
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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