PitchMath
Premier League · 2025Wed, 3 Dec 2025, 20:15 UTCFull timeElland RoadFull-time recap

Leeds

WLLLL
3–1Full-time recap

Chelsea

LWWWD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricLeedsChelsea
Shots17 shots/match▲14 shots/match
Shots on target5 shots/match▲2 shots/match
Possession29%71%
Corners4 corners/match2 corners/match
Fouls10 fouls/match13 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match1 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Chelsea. A second useful context is: Leeds's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Chelsea.

4.22 days▲Rest daysLeeds · Chelsea3.16 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricLeedsChelseaBaseline
Rest days4.22 days3.16 days—
Matches last 14 days2 matches2 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Leeds have a visible home split

moderate

Leeds's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

15.7 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season12.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots15.7 shots/match12.3 shots/match12 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Leeds's recent record differs from the season

weak

Leeds's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.14 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.4 goals/match1.14 goals/match1.39 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Leeds favored in 2 of 14 directional metrics · Chelsea in 8 · 4 too close

1.14 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 14/14▲1.79 goals/match
1.86 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 14/14▲1.07 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
12.3 shots/matchShotsseason · 14/14▲14.1 shots/match
11.6 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 14/14▲9.79 shots/match
3.71 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 14/14▲5.21 shots/match
4.14 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 14/14▲3 shots/match
46.1%Possessionseason · 14/1458.7%
3.93 corners/matchCornersseason · 14/146.07 corners/match
3.5 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 14/143.79 corners/match
1.64 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 14/142.29 cards/match
10.6 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 14/1411.4 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
14%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 14/14▲43%
64%Scoring frequencyseason · 14/14▲93%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Leeds32.5
Chelsea87.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Leeds36.7
Chelsea85
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Leeds36.7
Chelsea85.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Leeds87.5
Chelsea42.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Leeds40
Chelsea75
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Leeds22.5
Chelsea92.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Leeds40.6
Chelsea81.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.4 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.6 goals/match
2.4 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲0.8 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11 shots/matchShots5/5▲15 shots/match
3.8 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲5.6 shots/match
43.8%Possession5/556.2%
3.8 corners/matchCorners5/55.8 corners/match
1.8 cards/matchCards5/51.8 cards/match
11.4 fouls/matchFouls5/511.4 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.5 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.6 goals/match
2 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.2 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.8 shots/matchShots10/10▲13.8 shots/match
4.4 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲5.1 shots/match
47.1%Possession10/1057.1%
3.8 corners/matchCorners10/105.7 corners/match
1.8 cards/matchCards10/102.5 cards/match
10.7 fouls/matchFouls10/1012 fouls/match

Window

Season

14 / 14 matches
1.14 goals/matchGoals scored14/14▲1.79 goals/match
1.86 goals/matchGoals allowed14/14▲1.07 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.3 shots/matchShots14/14▲14.1 shots/match
3.71 shots/matchShots on target14/14▲5.21 shots/match
46.1%Possession14/1458.7%
3.93 corners/matchCorners14/146.07 corners/match
1.64 cards/matchCards14/142.29 cards/match
10.6 fouls/matchFouls14/1411.4 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

7 / 7 matches
1.43 goals/matchGoals scored7/7▲2.14 goals/match
1.14 goals/matchGoals allowed7/71.14 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15.7 shots/match▲Shots7/713.4 shots/match
4.43 shots/matchShots on target7/7▲5.14 shots/match
44.7%Possession7/759%
4.71 corners/matchCorners7/74.86 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards7/72.86 cards/match
11.1 fouls/matchFouls7/711.7 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

4.22 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/13.16 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples14 / 14home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Thu, 4 Dec 2025, 00:15 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsLeedsChelsea
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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