PitchMath
Premier League · 2025Wed, 3 Dec 2025, 19:30 UTCFull timeEmirates StadiumFull-time recap

Arsenal

WWDWD
2–0Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricArsenalBrentford
Shots15 shots/match▲6 shots/match
Shots on target7 shots/match▲1 shots/match
Possession62%38%
Corners4 corners/match8 corners/match
Fouls7 fouls/match9 fouls/match
Yellow cards0 cards/match▲1 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Arsenal. A second useful context is: Brentford's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Arsenal.

3.12 days▲Rest daysArsenal · Brentford4.19 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricArsenalBrentfordBaseline
Rest days3.12 days4.19 days—
Matches last 14 days2 matches2 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Brentford show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Brentford's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

14.4 shots/match▲ShotsArsenal · Brentford10.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricArsenalBrentfordBaseline
Shots14.4 shots/match10.5 shots/match12 shots/match
Shots against7.21 shots/match12.1 shots/match11.5 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Arsenal have recorded the higher season possession share.

59.2%▲PossessionArsenal · Brentford42.9%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 16.4 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricArsenalBrentfordBaseline
Possession59.2%42.9%50.3%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Arsenal favored in 10 of 14 directional metrics · Brentford in 0 · 4 too close

1.93 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 14/141.5 goals/match
0.5 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 14/141.57 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
14.4 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 14/1410.5 shots/match
7.21 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 14/1412.1 shots/match
5.07 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 14/144.14 shots/match
2 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 14/143.79 shots/match
59.2%Possessionseason · 14/1442.9%
6.14 corners/matchCornersseason · 14/145.43 corners/match
3.29 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 14/144.57 corners/match
1.29 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 14/141.86 cards/match
10.4 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 14/1411.7 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
57%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 14/1414%
93%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 14/1479%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Arsenal92.5
Brentford17.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Arsenal87.5
Brentford46.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Arsenal97.5
Brentford49.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Arsenal47.5
Brentford52.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Arsenal26.2
Brentford63.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Arsenal97.5
Brentford57.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Arsenal78.1
Brentford51.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
2.2 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51.4 goals/match
0.8 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.6 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.8 shots/match▲Shots5/510.2 shots/match
6.8 shots/match▲Shots on target5/53.6 shots/match
60%Possession5/547.8%
3.8 corners/matchCorners5/55.6 corners/match
1.8 cards/matchCards5/51.6 cards/match
11.4 fouls/matchFouls5/511.8 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.8 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.6 goals/match
0.6 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.5 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.8 shots/match▲Shots10/1011.4 shots/match
5.7 shots/match▲Shots on target10/104.5 shots/match
62.1%Possession10/1045%
6.4 corners/matchCorners10/106 corners/match
1.1 cards/matchCards10/101.8 cards/match
10.1 fouls/matchFouls10/1011.3 fouls/match

Window

Season

14 / 14 matches
1.93 goals/match▲Goals scored14/141.5 goals/match
0.5 goals/match▲Goals allowed14/141.57 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.4 shots/match▲Shots14/1410.5 shots/match
5.07 shots/match▲Shots on target14/144.14 shots/match
59.2%Possession14/1442.9%
6.14 corners/matchCorners14/145.43 corners/match
1.29 cards/matchCards14/141.86 cards/match
10.4 fouls/matchFouls14/1411.7 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

7 / 7 matches
2.57 goals/match▲Goals scored7/70.86 goals/match
0.29 goals/match▲Goals allowed7/72 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15.6 shots/match▲Shots7/79.86 shots/match
5.14 shots/match▲Shots on target7/73.43 shots/match
62.3%Possession7/747.6%
5.86 corners/matchCorners7/76.57 corners/match
0.43 cards/matchCards7/71.71 cards/match
9.29 fouls/matchFouls7/711.3 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

3.12 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/14.19 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples14 / 14home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Wed, 3 Dec 2025, 23:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsArsenalBrentford
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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