PitchMath
Premier League · 2025Sat, 6 Dec 2025, 12:30 UTCFull timeVilla ParkFull-time recap
2–1Full-time recap

Arsenal

WDWDW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricAston VillaArsenal
Shots15 shots/match15 shots/match
Shots on target6 shots/match9 shots/match▲
Possession47%53%
Corners3 corners/match3 corners/match
Fouls10 fouls/match8 fouls/match
Yellow cards0 cards/match▲2 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Aston Villa's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Aston Villa, Arsenal. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Aston Villa's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Aston Villa's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.47 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.6 goals/match1.47 goals/match1.4 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

moderate

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Aston Villa, Arsenal.

2.71 days▲Rest daysAston Villa · Arsenal2.71 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricAston VillaArsenalBaseline
Rest days2.71 days2.71 days—
Matches last 14 days3 matches3 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Aston Villa show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Aston Villa's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

11.9 shots/match▲ShotsAston Villa · Arsenal14.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricAston VillaArsenalBaseline
Shots11.9 shots/match14.5 shots/match12 shots/match
Shots against12.7 shots/match7.73 shots/match11.5 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Aston Villa favored in 0 of 14 directional metrics · Arsenal in 10 · 4 too close

1.47 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 15/15▲1.87 goals/match
1 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 15/15▲0.6 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
11.9 shots/matchShotsseason · 15/15▲14.5 shots/match
12.7 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 15/15▲7.73 shots/match
4.27 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 15/15▲5.33 shots/match
4 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 15/15▲2.27 shots/match
52.5%Possessionseason · 15/1558.8%
5.2 corners/matchCornersseason · 15/155.93 corners/match
4.87 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 15/15▲3.27 corners/match
1.53 cards/matchCardsseason · 15/15▲1.33 cards/match
10.2 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 15/1510.3 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
33%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 15/15▲53%
67%Scoring frequencyseason · 15/15▲93%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Aston Villa67.5
Arsenal87.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Aston Villa57.5
Arsenal91.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Aston Villa59.2
Arsenal97.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Aston Villa17.5
Arsenal62.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Aston Villa22.5
Arsenal20
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Aston Villa47.5
Arsenal87.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Aston Villa46.2
Arsenal75.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
2.6 goals/match▲Goals scored5/52 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.2 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15 shots/matchShots5/514.4 shots/match
6.6 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲7 shots/match
49.4%Possession5/559.8%
5 corners/matchCorners5/53.2 corners/match
1 cards/matchCards5/52 cards/match
11.2 fouls/matchFouls5/510.4 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
2.1 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.8 goals/match
1 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲0.7 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.6 shots/matchShots10/10▲15.1 shots/match
5.2 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲6.3 shots/match
49.1%Possession10/1060.7%
4.8 corners/matchCorners10/105.6 corners/match
1.3 cards/matchCards10/101.2 cards/match
10.1 fouls/matchFouls10/109.8 fouls/match

Window

Season

15 / 15 matches
1.47 goals/matchGoals scored15/15▲1.87 goals/match
1 goals/matchGoals allowed15/15▲0.6 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.9 shots/matchShots15/15▲14.5 shots/match
4.27 shots/matchShots on target15/15▲5.33 shots/match
52.5%Possession15/1558.8%
5.2 corners/matchCorners15/155.93 corners/match
1.53 cards/matchCards15/151.33 cards/match
10.2 fouls/matchFouls15/1510.3 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

8 / 8 matches
1.63 goals/match▲Goals scored8/81.25 goals/match
0.75 goals/match▲Goals allowed8/80.88 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12 shots/matchShots8/8▲13.5 shots/match
5.13 shots/matchShots on target8/8▲5.5 shots/match
49.9%Possession8/855.8%
5.25 corners/matchCorners8/86 corners/match
1.38 cards/matchCards8/82.13 cards/match
9.75 fouls/matchFouls8/811.1 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

2.71 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/12.71 days
3 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/13 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples15 / 15home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 6 Dec 2025, 16:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsAston VillaArsenal
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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