PitchMath
Premier League · 2025Sat, 6 Dec 2025, 15:00 UTCFull timeHill Dickinson StadiumFull-time recap

Everton

DWWLW
3–0Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricEvertonNottingham Forest
Shots11 shots/match▲7 shots/match
Shots on target5 shots/match▲3 shots/match
Possession41%59%
Corners6 corners/match3 corners/match
Fouls17 fouls/match15 fouls/match
Yellow cards4 cards/match3 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Nottingham Forest's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Everton, Nottingham Forest. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Nottingham Forest's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Nottingham Forest's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.93 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.4 goals/match0.93 goals/match1.4 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

moderate

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Everton, Nottingham Forest.

3.81 days▲Rest daysEverton · Nottingham Forest2.81 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricEvertonNottingham ForestBaseline
Rest days3.81 days2.81 days—
Matches last 14 days3 matches3 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Everton have a visible home split

moderate

Everton's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

13 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season10.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots13 shots/match10.6 shots/match12 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Everton favored in 5 of 14 directional metrics · Nottingham Forest in 3 · 6 too close

1.2 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 15/150.93 goals/match
1.13 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 15/151.67 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
10.6 shots/matchShotsseason · 15/15▲12.1 shots/match
12.9 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 15/1513.3 shots/match
3.07 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 15/15▲3.93 shots/match
4.2 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 15/154.93 shots/match
43.9%Possessionseason · 15/1550.9%
4.4 corners/matchCornersseason · 15/155.53 corners/match
5.07 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 15/154.87 corners/match
2.27 cards/matchCardsseason · 15/15▲1.67 cards/match
10.8 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 15/1511.5 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
40%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 15/1513%
73%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 15/1547%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Everton27.5
Nottingham Forest52.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Everton24.2
Nottingham Forest35
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Everton45.8
Nottingham Forest17.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Everton52.5
Nottingham Forest47.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Everton66.2
Nottingham Forest42.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Everton32.5
Nottingham Forest67.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Everton33.1
Nottingham Forest56.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.6 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51.4 goals/match
0.8 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.2 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.2 shots/matchShots5/5▲13 shots/match
3.2 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲4.4 shots/match
43%Possession5/546.4%
5.6 corners/matchCorners5/56.6 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards5/51.4 cards/match
11 fouls/matchFouls5/511 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.2 goals/match▲Goals scored10/100.9 goals/match
1.2 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.6 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.2 shots/matchShots10/10▲12.9 shots/match
3.4 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲4.1 shots/match
43.9%Possession10/1048.5%
4.6 corners/matchCorners10/105.8 corners/match
2.1 cards/matchCards10/101.9 cards/match
11 fouls/matchFouls10/1011.8 fouls/match

Window

Season

15 / 15 matches
1.2 goals/match▲Goals scored15/150.93 goals/match
1.13 goals/match▲Goals allowed15/151.67 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.6 shots/matchShots15/15▲12.1 shots/match
3.07 shots/matchShots on target15/15▲3.93 shots/match
43.9%Possession15/1550.9%
4.4 corners/matchCorners15/155.53 corners/match
2.27 cards/matchCards15/151.67 cards/match
10.8 fouls/matchFouls15/1511.5 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

8 / 8 matches
1.38 goals/match▲Goals scored8/80.75 goals/match
1.13 goals/match▲Goals allowed8/81.5 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13 shots/match▲Shots8/89.5 shots/match
4 shots/matchShots on target8/83.88 shots/match
48.3%Possession8/849.8%
5.88 corners/matchCorners8/84.25 corners/match
2.5 cards/matchCards8/81.88 cards/match
10.6 fouls/matchFouls8/811.1 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

3.81 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/12.81 days
3 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/13 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples15 / 15home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 6 Dec 2025, 19:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsEvertonNottingham Forest
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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