PitchMath
Premier League · 2025Wed, 3 Dec 2025, 19:30 UTCFull timeMolineux StadiumFull-time recap

Wolves

LLLLL
0–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricWolvesNottingham Forest
Shots5 shots/match10 shots/match▲
Shots on target1 shots/match3 shots/match▲
Possession50%50%
Corners3 corners/match9 corners/match
Fouls19 fouls/match11 fouls/match
Yellow cards2 cards/match2 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Wolves's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Wolves, Nottingham Forest. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Wolves's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Wolves's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.5 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0 goals/match0.5 goals/match1.39 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Wolves, Nottingham Forest.

3.23 days▲Rest daysWolves · Nottingham Forest3.23 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricWolvesNottingham ForestBaseline
Rest days3.23 days3.23 days—
Matches last 14 days2 matches2 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Nottingham Forest have a visible away split

moderate

Nottingham Forest's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

9.86 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season12.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots9.86 shots/match12.5 shots/match12 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Wolves favored in 1 of 14 directional metrics · Nottingham Forest in 8 · 5 too close

0.5 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 14/14▲1 goals/match
2.07 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 14/14▲1.57 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
9.07 shots/matchShotsseason · 14/14▲12.5 shots/match
13 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 14/1413.4 shots/match
2.93 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 14/14▲4 shots/match
4.64 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 14/144.93 shots/match
47.6%Possessionseason · 14/1450.4%
3.07 corners/matchCornersseason · 14/145.71 corners/match
6.21 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 14/14▲4.79 corners/match
2.14 cards/matchCardsseason · 14/14▲1.57 cards/match
14.4 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 14/1411.2 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
0%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 14/14▲14%
36%Scoring frequencyseason · 14/14▲50%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Wolves37.5
Nottingham Forest52.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Wolves5
Nottingham Forest37.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Wolves19.2
Nottingham Forest20.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Wolves7.5
Nottingham Forest67.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Wolves86.2
Nottingham Forest40
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Wolves7.5
Nottingham Forest72.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Wolves29.4
Nottingham Forest60
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
0 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.8 goals/match
2 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
6 shots/matchShots5/5▲15 shots/match
1.6 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲4.4 shots/match
43.8%Possession5/542.8%
1.8 corners/matchCorners5/57.6 corners/match
2.8 cards/matchCards5/51 cards/match
16.2 fouls/matchFouls5/511.4 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
0.5 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1 goals/match
2 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.4 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
9.2 shots/matchShots10/10▲13.9 shots/match
3 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲4.6 shots/match
48.2%Possession10/1048.9%
3 corners/matchCorners10/106 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards10/101.7 cards/match
14 fouls/matchFouls10/1011.4 fouls/match

Window

Season

14 / 14 matches
0.5 goals/matchGoals scored14/14▲1 goals/match
2.07 goals/matchGoals allowed14/14▲1.57 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
9.07 shots/matchShots14/14▲12.5 shots/match
2.93 shots/matchShots on target14/14▲4 shots/match
47.6%Possession14/1450.4%
3.07 corners/matchCorners14/145.71 corners/match
2.14 cards/matchCards14/141.57 cards/match
14.4 fouls/matchFouls14/1411.2 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

7 / 7 matches
0.86 goals/matchGoals scored7/70.86 goals/match
2.43 goals/matchGoals allowed7/7▲1.29 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.1 shots/matchShots7/79.86 shots/match
3.57 shots/matchShots on target7/7▲4 shots/match
50.6%Possession7/748.4%
2.86 corners/matchCorners7/74.43 corners/match
1.29 cards/matchCards7/71.71 cards/match
13.7 fouls/matchFouls7/710.6 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

3.23 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/13.23 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples14 / 14home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Wed, 3 Dec 2025, 23:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsWolvesNottingham Forest
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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