PitchMath
Premier League · 2025Wed, 3 Dec 2025, 19:30 UTCFull timeAmex StadiumFull-time recap
3–4Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricBrightonAston Villa
Shots16 shots/match▲14 shots/match
Shots on target7 shots/match10 shots/match▲
Possession56%44%
Corners5 corners/match6 corners/match
Fouls10 fouls/match9 fouls/match
Yellow cards2 cards/match2 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Aston Villa's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Brighton, Aston Villa. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Aston Villa's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Aston Villa's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.43 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.2 goals/match1.43 goals/match1.39 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Brighton, Aston Villa.

3.23 days▲Rest daysBrighton · Aston Villa3.23 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricBrightonAston VillaBaseline
Rest days3.23 days3.23 days—
Matches last 14 days2 matches2 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Brighton favored in 6 of 14 directional metrics · Aston Villa in 4 · 4 too close

1.71 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 14/141.43 goals/match
1.43 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 14/14▲1 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
12.9 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 14/1411.6 shots/match
11.4 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 14/1412.6 shots/match
4.86 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 14/144.14 shots/match
3.93 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 14/14▲3.64 shots/match
50.4%Possessionseason · 14/1452.9%
5 corners/matchCornersseason · 14/145.36 corners/match
4.5 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 14/145 corners/match
2.5 cards/matchCardsseason · 14/14▲1.64 cards/match
11.9 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 14/1410.2 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
21%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 14/14▲36%
86%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 14/1464%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Brighton57.5
Aston Villa67.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Brighton75.8
Aston Villa48.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Brighton56.7
Aston Villa65
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Brighton82.5
Aston Villa17.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Brighton86.2
Aston Villa27.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Brighton37.5
Aston Villa52.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Brighton66.2
Aston Villa43.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
2 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲2.2 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.2 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.6 shots/matchShots5/514 shots/match
5.6 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲6 shots/match
55.2%Possession5/549.4%
5.2 corners/matchCorners5/55.2 corners/match
2.2 cards/matchCards5/51.6 cards/match
10.4 fouls/matchFouls5/511.4 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
2 goals/matchGoals scored10/102 goals/match
1.4 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.9 shots/match▲Shots10/1012.3 shots/match
5.1 shots/match▲Shots on target10/104.8 shots/match
51.2%Possession10/1051.5%
5.7 corners/matchCorners10/105 corners/match
2.3 cards/matchCards10/101.4 cards/match
10.9 fouls/matchFouls10/109.9 fouls/match

Window

Season

14 / 14 matches
1.71 goals/match▲Goals scored14/141.43 goals/match
1.43 goals/matchGoals allowed14/14▲1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.9 shots/match▲Shots14/1411.6 shots/match
4.86 shots/match▲Shots on target14/144.14 shots/match
50.4%Possession14/1452.9%
5 corners/matchCorners14/145.36 corners/match
2.5 cards/matchCards14/141.64 cards/match
11.9 fouls/matchFouls14/1410.2 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

7 / 7 matches
2.14 goals/match▲Goals scored7/71.29 goals/match
1.43 goals/matchGoals allowed7/7▲1.29 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13 shots/match▲Shots7/711.7 shots/match
5.57 shots/match▲Shots on target7/73.29 shots/match
48.4%Possession7/755.6%
4.71 corners/matchCorners7/75.14 corners/match
1.71 cards/matchCards7/71.71 cards/match
11.6 fouls/matchFouls7/710.7 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

3.23 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/13.23 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples14 / 14home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Wed, 3 Dec 2025, 23:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsBrightonAston Villa
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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