PitchMath
Premier League · 2025Sun, 30 Nov 2025, 14:05 UTCFull timeCity GroundFull-time recap
0–2Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricNottingham ForestBrighton
Shots19 shots/match▲17 shots/match
Shots on target3 shots/match6 shots/match▲
Possession52%48%
Corners9 corners/match2 corners/match
Fouls11 fouls/match10 fouls/match
Yellow cards0 cards/match▲1 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Nottingham Forest's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Nottingham Forest's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Nottingham Forest's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Nottingham Forest's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.6 goals/match1 goals/match1.31 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Nottingham Forest have a visible home split

moderate

Nottingham Forest's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

15.1 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season12.7 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots15.1 shots/match12.7 shots/match11.8 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Brighton show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Brighton's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

12.7 shots/match▲ShotsNottingham Forest · Brighton12.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricNottingham ForestBrightonBaseline
Shots12.7 shots/match12.6 shots/match11.8 shots/match
Shots against14.1 shots/match11.2 shots/match11.3 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Nottingham Forest favored in 1 of 14 directional metrics · Brighton in 8 · 5 too close

1 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 13/13▲1.62 goals/match
1.69 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 13/13▲1.23 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
12.7 shots/matchShotsseason · 13/1312.6 shots/match
14.1 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 13/13▲11.2 shots/match
4.08 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 13/13▲4.69 shots/match
5.23 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 13/13▲3.46 shots/match
50.4%Possessionseason · 13/1350%
5.46 corners/matchCornersseason · 13/135 corners/match
4.92 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 13/13▲4.38 corners/match
1.54 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 13/132.54 cards/match
11.2 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 13/1312 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
8%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 13/13▲23%
46%Scoring frequencyseason · 13/13▲85%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Nottingham Forest57.5
Brighton52.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Nottingham Forest42.5
Brighton69.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Nottingham Forest19.2
Brighton65
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Nottingham Forest77.5
Brighton82.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Nottingham Forest40
Brighton87.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Nottingham Forest62.5
Brighton40
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Nottingham Forest60.6
Brighton64.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.6 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.8 goals/match
1.4 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.6 shots/match▲Shots5/513.8 shots/match
4.6 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲5.2 shots/match
42.4%Possession5/555.2%
6.6 corners/matchCorners5/55.4 corners/match
0.8 cards/matchCards5/52.2 cards/match
10.6 fouls/matchFouls5/511 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
0.9 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.8 goals/match
1.7 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.2 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.4 shots/matchShots10/1012.9 shots/match
4.4 shots/matchShots on target10/104.6 shots/match
48.5%Possession10/1050.5%
5.4 corners/matchCorners10/105.6 corners/match
1.6 cards/matchCards10/102.5 cards/match
11.4 fouls/matchFouls10/1010.9 fouls/match

Window

Season

13 / 13 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored13/13▲1.62 goals/match
1.69 goals/matchGoals allowed13/13▲1.23 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.7 shots/matchShots13/1312.6 shots/match
4.08 shots/matchShots on target13/13▲4.69 shots/match
50.4%Possession13/1350%
5.46 corners/matchCorners13/135 corners/match
1.54 cards/matchCards13/132.54 cards/match
11.2 fouls/matchFouls13/1312 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

7 / 7 matches
1.14 goals/matchGoals scored7/7▲1.29 goals/match
1.86 goals/matchGoals allowed7/7▲1.43 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15.1 shots/match▲Shots7/712.7 shots/match
4 shots/matchShots on target7/74.14 shots/match
52.3%Possession7/752.4%
7 corners/matchCorners7/75.29 corners/match
1.43 cards/matchCards7/73.29 cards/match
11.9 fouls/matchFouls7/712.1 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.96 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.96 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples13 / 13home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 30 Nov 2025, 18:05 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsNottingham ForestBrighton
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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