PitchMath
Premier League · 2025Sun, 30 Nov 2025, 14:05 UTCFull timeLondon StadiumFull-time recap
0–2Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricWest HamLiverpool
Shots7 shots/match9 shots/match▲
Shots on target0 shots/match5 shots/match▲
Possession44%56%
Corners7 corners/match2 corners/match
Fouls12 fouls/match14 fouls/match
Yellow cards3 cards/match0 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: West Ham's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Liverpool's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

West Ham's recent record differs from the season

moderate

West Ham's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.15 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.8 goals/match1.15 goals/match1.31 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Liverpool show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

Liverpool's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

9.77 shots/match▲ShotsWest Ham · Liverpool14.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricWest HamLiverpoolBaseline
Shots9.77 shots/match14.8 shots/match11.8 shots/match
Shots against15.2 shots/match11.2 shots/match11.3 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Liverpool have recorded the higher season possession share.

43.8%▲PossessionWest Ham · Liverpool61.4%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 17.5 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricWest HamLiverpoolBaseline
Possession43.8%61.4%49.9%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

West Ham favored in 0 of 14 directional metrics · Liverpool in 9 · 5 too close

1.15 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 13/13▲1.54 goals/match
2.08 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 13/13▲1.54 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
9.77 shots/matchShotsseason · 13/13▲14.8 shots/match
15.2 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 13/13▲11.2 shots/match
3.62 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 13/13▲4.23 shots/match
5.54 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 13/13▲3.85 shots/match
43.8%Possessionseason · 13/1361.4%
5.54 corners/matchCornersseason · 13/135.15 corners/match
6.54 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 13/13▲5.31 corners/match
1.85 cards/matchCardsseason · 13/131.92 cards/match
10.7 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 13/1310.5 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
8%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 13/13▲31%
62%Scoring frequencyseason · 13/13▲85%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

West Ham22.5
Liverpool97.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

West Ham26.7
Liverpool69.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

West Ham8.3
Liverpool52.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

West Ham22.5
Liverpool47.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

West Ham45
Liverpool42.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

West Ham70
Liverpool47.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

West Ham43.8
Liverpool58.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.8 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51.2 goals/match
1.8 goals/matchGoals allowed5/51.8 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.2 shots/matchShots5/5▲14.2 shots/match
4 shots/match▲Shots on target5/53.8 shots/match
41.4%Possession5/560.2%
5.4 corners/matchCorners5/54.4 corners/match
2.4 cards/matchCards5/52 cards/match
10.6 fouls/matchFouls5/512.6 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.1 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.2 goals/match
1.9 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.6 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
9.1 shots/matchShots10/10▲16 shots/match
3.1 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲3.8 shots/match
42.4%Possession10/1062.2%
5.1 corners/matchCorners10/105.7 corners/match
2.3 cards/matchCards10/101.9 cards/match
11.6 fouls/matchFouls10/1010.7 fouls/match

Window

Season

13 / 13 matches
1.15 goals/matchGoals scored13/13▲1.54 goals/match
2.08 goals/matchGoals allowed13/13▲1.54 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
9.77 shots/matchShots13/13▲14.8 shots/match
3.62 shots/matchShots on target13/13▲4.23 shots/match
43.8%Possession13/1361.4%
5.54 corners/matchCorners13/135.15 corners/match
1.85 cards/matchCards13/131.92 cards/match
10.7 fouls/matchFouls13/1310.5 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

7 / 7 matches
1.14 goals/matchGoals scored7/7▲1.43 goals/match
2.43 goals/matchGoals allowed7/7▲1.71 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.1 shots/matchShots7/7▲14 shots/match
3.86 shots/match▲Shots on target7/73.57 shots/match
43.1%Possession7/762.1%
6.29 corners/matchCorners7/75 corners/match
1.71 cards/matchCards7/72.29 cards/match
10.3 fouls/matchFouls7/711.3 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.96 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.96 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples13 / 13home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 30 Nov 2025, 18:05 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsWest HamLiverpool
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

Make a graphic from this match

Creator Studio builds a branded post from this match's recorded data, with its evidence grade and source cutoff carried into the export.

Create a graphic from this match