PitchMath
Premier League · 2025Sat, 6 Dec 2025, 15:00 UTCFull timeSt. James' ParkFull-time recap
2–1Full-time recap

Burnley

LLLLL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricNewcastleBurnley
Shots17 shots/match▲9 shots/match
Shots on target7 shots/match▲3 shots/match
Possession70%30%
Corners9 corners/match9 corners/match
Fouls9 fouls/match11 fouls/match
Yellow cards2 cards/match2 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Newcastle's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Newcastle, Burnley. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Newcastle's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Newcastle's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.4 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.2 goals/match1.4 goals/match1.4 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

moderate

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Newcastle, Burnley.

3.78 days▲Rest daysNewcastle · Burnley2.81 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricNewcastleBurnleyBaseline
Rest days3.78 days2.81 days—
Matches last 14 days3 matches2 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Newcastle show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Newcastle's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

12.6 shots/match▲ShotsNewcastle · Burnley8.27 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricNewcastleBurnleyBaseline
Shots12.6 shots/match8.27 shots/match12 shots/match
Shots against10.7 shots/match16.1 shots/match11.5 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Newcastle favored in 10 of 14 directional metrics · Burnley in 0 · 4 too close

1.4 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 15/151.07 goals/match
1.27 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 15/152 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
12.6 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 15/158.27 shots/match
10.7 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 15/1516.1 shots/match
4.47 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 15/153.07 shots/match
4.07 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 15/155.6 shots/match
51.3%Possessionseason · 15/1540.1%
6.13 corners/matchCornersseason · 15/153.27 corners/match
5.93 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 15/156.53 corners/match
1.27 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 15/151.73 cards/match
10 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 15/159.93 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
33%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 15/1513%
80%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 15/1567%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Newcastle57.5
Burnley2.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Newcastle60.8
Burnley10
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Newcastle63.3
Burnley5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Newcastle57.5
Burnley12.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Newcastle12.5
Burnley23.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Newcastle97.5
Burnley7.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Newcastle62.5
Burnley10.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
2.2 goals/match▲Goals scored5/50.8 goals/match
1.6 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/52.2 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.6 shots/match▲Shots5/510 shots/match
5.6 shots/match▲Shots on target5/53.6 shots/match
51.6%Possession5/547.4%
6.8 corners/matchCorners5/54.6 corners/match
1.4 cards/matchCards5/51.8 cards/match
6.6 fouls/matchFouls5/510.6 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.8 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.1 goals/match
1.6 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/102.2 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.5 shots/match▲Shots10/108.2 shots/match
5.4 shots/match▲Shots on target10/103.2 shots/match
51.4%Possession10/1043.3%
6.3 corners/matchCorners10/103.4 corners/match
1.2 cards/matchCards10/101.7 cards/match
8.7 fouls/matchFouls10/1010.2 fouls/match

Window

Season

15 / 15 matches
1.4 goals/match▲Goals scored15/151.07 goals/match
1.27 goals/match▲Goals allowed15/152 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.6 shots/match▲Shots15/158.27 shots/match
4.47 shots/match▲Shots on target15/153.07 shots/match
51.3%Possession15/1540.1%
6.13 corners/matchCorners15/153.27 corners/match
1.27 cards/matchCards15/151.73 cards/match
10 fouls/matchFouls15/159.93 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

8 / 8 matches
1.75 goals/match▲Goals scored8/81.38 goals/match
1.25 goals/match▲Goals allowed8/82.88 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.4 shots/match▲Shots8/89.5 shots/match
5.63 shots/match▲Shots on target8/83.75 shots/match
48.8%Possession8/840.6%
7.5 corners/matchCorners8/84.25 corners/match
1.13 cards/matchCards8/82 cards/match
11.1 fouls/matchFouls8/89.63 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

3.78 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/12.81 days
3 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples15 / 15home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 6 Dec 2025, 19:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsNewcastleBurnley
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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