PitchMath
Premier League · 2025Tue, 2 Dec 2025, 20:15 UTCFull timeSt. James' ParkFull-time recap
2–2Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricNewcastleTottenham
Shots19 shots/match▲8 shots/match
Shots on target7 shots/match▲2 shots/match
Possession53%47%
Corners11 corners/match8 corners/match
Fouls5 fouls/match12 fouls/match
Yellow cards0 cards/match▲3 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Newcastle's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Newcastle, Tottenham. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Newcastle's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Newcastle's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.36 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2 goals/match1.36 goals/match1.36 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Newcastle, Tottenham.

3.11 days▲Rest daysNewcastle · Tottenham3.01 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricNewcastleTottenhamBaseline
Rest days3.11 days3.01 days—
Matches last 14 days2 matches2 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Both teams have elevated corners records

weak

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

5.93 corners/match▲CornersNewcastle · Tottenham6 corners/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricNewcastleTottenhamBaseline
Corners5.93 corners/match6 corners/match5.19 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Newcastle favored in 6 of 14 directional metrics · Tottenham in 2 · 6 too close

1.36 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 14/14▲1.64 goals/match
1.29 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 14/141.29 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
12.3 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 14/149.43 shots/match
10.9 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 14/1412.2 shots/match
4.29 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 14/143.14 shots/match
4.14 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 14/144.43 shots/match
50%Possessionseason · 14/1453.1%
5.93 corners/matchCornersseason · 14/146 corners/match
5.71 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 14/145.5 corners/match
1.21 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 14/142.5 cards/match
10.1 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 14/1411.8 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
36%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 14/1429%
79%Scoring frequencyseason · 14/14▲86%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Newcastle45
Tottenham67.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Newcastle55
Tottenham39.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Newcastle61.7
Tottenham41.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Newcastle62.5
Tottenham2.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Newcastle10
Tottenham80
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Newcastle82.5
Tottenham87.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Newcastle53.8
Tottenham48.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
2 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51.2 goals/match
2 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/52.2 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.6 shots/match▲Shots5/57.6 shots/match
5 shots/match▲Shots on target5/52.2 shots/match
50.2%Possession5/551.2%
6.2 corners/matchCorners5/55.6 corners/match
1.4 cards/matchCards5/53.6 cards/match
6.8 fouls/matchFouls5/512.4 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.6 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.5 goals/match
1.5 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.7 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.2 shots/match▲Shots10/108.5 shots/match
4.8 shots/match▲Shots on target10/102.7 shots/match
48.8%Possession10/1051.3%
5.6 corners/matchCorners10/106.3 corners/match
1.1 cards/matchCards10/102.8 cards/match
8.8 fouls/matchFouls10/1011.5 fouls/match

Window

Season

14 / 14 matches
1.36 goals/matchGoals scored14/14▲1.64 goals/match
1.29 goals/matchGoals allowed14/141.29 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.3 shots/match▲Shots14/149.43 shots/match
4.29 shots/match▲Shots on target14/143.14 shots/match
50%Possession14/1453.1%
5.93 corners/matchCorners14/146 corners/match
1.21 cards/matchCards14/142.5 cards/match
10.1 fouls/matchFouls14/1411.8 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

7 / 7 matches
1.71 goals/matchGoals scored7/7▲2.14 goals/match
1.29 goals/matchGoals allowed7/71.29 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14 shots/match▲Shots7/79.14 shots/match
5.43 shots/match▲Shots on target7/73.43 shots/match
45.7%Possession7/749.4%
7.29 corners/matchCorners7/76.14 corners/match
1 cards/matchCards7/72.29 cards/match
11.4 fouls/matchFouls7/711.3 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

3.11 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/13.01 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples14 / 14home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Wed, 3 Dec 2025, 00:15 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsNewcastleTottenham
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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