PitchMath
Premier League · 2025Sat, 29 Nov 2025, 17:30 UTCFull timeHill Dickinson StadiumFull-time recap

Everton

LLDWW
1–4Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricEvertonNewcastle
Shots10 shots/match13 shots/match▲
Shots on target2 shots/match8 shots/match▲
Possession49%51%
Corners8 corners/match7 corners/match
Fouls4 fouls/match6 fouls/match
Yellow cards0 cards/match0 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Newcastle's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Everton's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Newcastle's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Newcastle's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.31 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2 goals/match1.31 goals/match1.32 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Everton have a visible home split

moderate

Everton's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

13.3 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season10.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots13.3 shots/match10.4 shots/match11.8 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Everton favored in 0 of 14 directional metrics · Newcastle in 8 · 6 too close

1.08 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 13/13▲1.31 goals/match
1.31 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 13/13▲1.23 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
10.4 shots/matchShotsseason · 13/13▲11.8 shots/match
14 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 13/13▲11.1 shots/match
2.92 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 13/13▲4.08 shots/match
4.46 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 13/134.31 shots/match
44.1%Possessionseason · 13/1349.8%
4.15 corners/matchCornersseason · 13/135.54 corners/match
5.54 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 13/135.54 corners/match
2.08 cards/matchCardsseason · 13/13▲1.31 cards/match
10.1 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 13/1310.5 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
31%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 13/13▲38%
69%Scoring frequencyseason · 13/13▲77%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Everton27.5
Newcastle47.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Everton15
Newcastle46.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Everton35
Newcastle55.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Everton37.5
Newcastle42.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Everton42.5
Newcastle25
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Everton27.5
Newcastle72.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Everton19.4
Newcastle52.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲2 goals/match
1.6 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.8 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
9.4 shots/matchShots5/5▲11.4 shots/match
2.4 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲5 shots/match
44.4%Possession5/549.8%
5.2 corners/matchCorners5/54.8 corners/match
1.4 cards/matchCards5/51.4 cards/match
9 fouls/matchFouls5/58 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
0.9 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.5 goals/match
1.4 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.3 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.7 shots/matchShots10/10▲11.9 shots/match
3 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲4.5 shots/match
44.4%Possession10/1049.2%
4.8 corners/matchCorners10/105.4 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards10/101.2 cards/match
10.6 fouls/matchFouls10/109.3 fouls/match

Window

Season

13 / 13 matches
1.08 goals/matchGoals scored13/13▲1.31 goals/match
1.31 goals/matchGoals allowed13/13▲1.23 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.4 shots/matchShots13/13▲11.8 shots/match
2.92 shots/matchShots on target13/13▲4.08 shots/match
44.1%Possession13/1349.8%
4.15 corners/matchCorners13/135.54 corners/match
2.08 cards/matchCards13/131.31 cards/match
10.1 fouls/matchFouls13/1310.5 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

7 / 7 matches
1.14 goals/match▲Goals scored7/71 goals/match
1.29 goals/matchGoals allowed7/71.29 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.3 shots/match▲Shots7/710.6 shots/match
3.86 shots/match▲Shots on target7/73.14 shots/match
49.3%Possession7/754.3%
5.86 corners/matchCorners7/74.57 corners/match
2.29 cards/matchCards7/71.43 cards/match
9.71 fouls/matchFouls7/78.71 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

4.9 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples13 / 13home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 29 Nov 2025, 21:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsEvertonNewcastle
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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