PitchMath
Premier League · 2025Tue, 2 Dec 2025, 19:30 UTCFull timeCraven CottageFull-time recap

Fulham

LWLWW
4–5Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricFulhamManchester City
Shots12 shots/match▲11 shots/match
Shots on target6 shots/match▲4 shots/match
Possession57%43%
Corners7 corners/match2 corners/match
Fouls9 fouls/match7 fouls/match
Yellow cards0 cards/match▲1 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Fulham's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Fulham, Manchester City. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Fulham's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Fulham's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.36 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2 goals/match1.36 goals/match1.36 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

moderate

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Fulham, Manchester City.

2.98 days▲Rest daysFulham · Manchester City3.19 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricFulhamManchester CityBaseline
Rest days2.98 days3.19 days—
Matches last 14 days2 matches2 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Fulham have a visible home split

moderate

Fulham's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

13.7 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season11.7 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots13.7 shots/match11.7 shots/match12.1 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Fulham favored in 0 of 14 directional metrics · Manchester City in 9 · 5 too close

1.36 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 14/14▲2.29 goals/match
1.57 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 14/14▲1.14 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
11.7 shots/matchShotsseason · 14/14▲14.1 shots/match
10.9 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 14/14▲9.36 shots/match
3.79 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 14/14▲5.29 shots/match
4 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 14/14▲3.43 shots/match
50.2%Possessionseason · 14/1456.6%
5.14 corners/matchCornersseason · 14/145.79 corners/match
5.07 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 14/14▲4.36 corners/match
1.86 cards/matchCardsseason · 14/141.86 cards/match
12.5 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 14/149.64 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
21%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 14/14▲36%
79%Scoring frequencyseason · 14/14▲86%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Fulham52.5
Manchester City82.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Fulham45
Manchester City89.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Fulham52.5
Manchester City79.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Fulham32.5
Manchester City67.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Fulham66.2
Manchester City26.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Fulham42.5
Manchester City77.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Fulham53.8
Manchester City63.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
2 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲3 goals/match
1.6 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.8 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14 shots/matchShots5/5▲15 shots/match
5 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲6.2 shots/match
52.8%Possession5/553.8%
6.2 corners/matchCorners5/57 corners/match
1.6 cards/matchCards5/52.4 cards/match
9.6 fouls/matchFouls5/510.8 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.6 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲2.4 goals/match
1.8 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.2 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.8 shots/matchShots10/10▲14.8 shots/match
4.1 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲5.7 shots/match
50.1%Possession10/1056.5%
5.3 corners/matchCorners10/106.5 corners/match
1.9 cards/matchCards10/102.1 cards/match
11.1 fouls/matchFouls10/109.9 fouls/match

Window

Season

14 / 14 matches
1.36 goals/matchGoals scored14/14▲2.29 goals/match
1.57 goals/matchGoals allowed14/14▲1.14 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.7 shots/matchShots14/14▲14.1 shots/match
3.79 shots/matchShots on target14/14▲5.29 shots/match
50.2%Possession14/1456.6%
5.14 corners/matchCorners14/145.79 corners/match
1.86 cards/matchCards14/141.86 cards/match
12.5 fouls/matchFouls14/149.64 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

7 / 7 matches
1.86 goals/matchGoals scored7/71.86 goals/match
1.14 goals/match▲Goals allowed7/71.43 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.7 shots/match▲Shots7/712.6 shots/match
4 shots/match▲Shots on target7/73.71 shots/match
53.3%Possession7/755.3%
6.29 corners/matchCorners7/73.86 corners/match
1.43 cards/matchCards7/72.29 cards/match
11.6 fouls/matchFouls7/79.71 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

2.98 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/13.19 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples14 / 14home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Tue, 2 Dec 2025, 23:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsFulhamManchester City
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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