PitchMath
Major League Soccer · 2026

Austin FC vs Vancouver Whitecaps · Major League Soccer

vsPre-match analysis

Season

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Goals scored
1.282.21
Expected goals
0.972.1
Shots
10.417.3
Possession
48.6%56.2%

30-second read

What the record shows

One pattern stands out in the record: vancouver Whitecaps's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. The next-strongest reading is weaker: vancouver Whitecaps's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. Limitation: At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Vancouver Whitecaps show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

Vancouver Whitecaps's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

10.4 shots/match ▲ShotsAustin FC · Vancouver Whitecaps17.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricAustin FCVancouver WhitecapsBaseline
Shots10.4 shots/match17.3 shots/match12.9 shots/match
Shots against16.4 shots/match8.04 shots/match12.8 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Vancouver Whitecaps's recent record differs from the season

weak

Vancouver Whitecaps's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.6 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.21 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.6 goals/match2.21 goals/match1.56 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Austin FC favored in 0 of 13 directional metrics · Vancouver Whitecaps in 11 · 2 too close

recorded edge higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Austin FC25 matchesVancouver Whitecaps24 matches
1.28 goals/matchGoals scored25/24▲ 2.21 goals/match
1.76 goals/matchGoals allowed25/24▲ 0.96 goals/match
0.97 xG/matchExpected goals22/21▲ 2.1 xG/match
10.4 shots/matchShots25/24▲ 17.3 shots/match
3.96 shots/matchShots on target25/24▲ 6.38 shots/match
48.6%Possession25/24● 56.2%
4.44 corners/matchCorners25/24● 5.88 corners/match
2.8 cards/matchCards5/62.67 cards/match
10.9 fouls/matchFouls25/2415 fouls/match

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Austin FC
2Draws
2Vancouver Whitecaps
Vancouver Whitecaps — Austin FC · Major League Soccer1–2
Austin FC — Vancouver Whitecaps · Major League Soccer0–0
Vancouver Whitecaps — Austin FC · Major League Soccer5–1
Austin FC — Vancouver Whitecaps · Major League Soccer0–1
Vancouver Whitecaps — Austin FC · Major League Soccer0–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples25 / 24home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
Freshness34 daysstale at cutoff
  • At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The nearest completed-match evidence is stale relative to this fixture cutoff.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 18 Oct 2026, 00:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Major League Soccer

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsAustin FCVancouver Whitecaps
CompetitionMajor League Soccer
Head-to-headAustin FC — Vancouver Whitecaps
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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