PitchMath
Major League Soccer · 2026

San Diego FC vs Houston Dynamo · Major League Soccer

vsPre-match analysis

Season

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Goals scored
1.681.28
Expected goals
1.421.1
Shots
11.813.1
Possession
60.1%47.9%

30-second read

What the record shows

The story here is recent context rather than season averages: houston Dynamo's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. Alongside it: san Diego FC have recorded the higher season possession share. Limitation: At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Houston Dynamo's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Houston Dynamo's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.6 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.28 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.6 goals/match1.28 goals/match1.56 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

San Diego FC have recorded the higher season possession share.

60.1% ●PossessionSan Diego FC · Houston Dynamo47.9%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 12.2 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricSan Diego FCHouston DynamoBaseline
Possession60.1%47.9%49.9%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: San Diego FC favored in 4 of 13 directional metrics · Houston Dynamo in 6 · 3 too close

recorded edge higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

San Diego FC25 matchesHouston Dynamo25 matches
1.68 goals/match ▲Goals scored25/251.28 goals/match
1.68 goals/matchGoals allowed25/25▲ 1.12 goals/match
1.42 xG/match ▲Expected goals22/231.1 xG/match
11.8 shots/matchShots25/25▲ 13.1 shots/match
4.52 shots/matchShots on target25/254.6 shots/match
60.1% ●Possession25/2547.9%
5 corners/match ●Corners25/254.2 corners/match
3.5 cards/matchCards12/103 cards/match
10.9 fouls/matchFouls25/2510.6 fouls/match

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1San Diego FC
0Draws
2Houston Dynamo
Houston Dynamo — San Diego FC · Major League Soccer1–0
Houston Dynamo — San Diego FC · Major League Soccer2–4
San Diego FC — Houston Dynamo · Major League Soccer3–4

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples25 / 25home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
Freshness32 daysstale at cutoff
  • At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The nearest completed-match evidence is stale relative to this fixture cutoff.
Analysis cutoff: Thu, 15 Oct 2026, 02:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Major League Soccer

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsSan Diego FCHouston Dynamo
CompetitionMajor League Soccer
Head-to-headSan Diego FC — Houston Dynamo
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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