PitchMath
Major League Soccer · 2026

Minnesota United vs Houston Dynamo · Major League Soccer

vsPre-match analysis

Season

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Goals scored
1.51.31
Expected goals
1.651.1
Shots
13.512.8
Possession
46.1%47.7%

30-second read

What the record shows

The story here is recent context rather than season averages: minnesota United's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. Limitation: Lineup availability and tactical choices are not in the retained data.

Minnesota United's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Minnesota United's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.4 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.5 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.4 goals/match1.5 goals/match1.55 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Minnesota United favored in 5 of 13 directional metrics · Houston Dynamo in 5 · 3 too close

recorded edge higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Minnesota United26 matchesHouston Dynamo26 matches
1.5 goals/match ▲Goals scored26/261.31 goals/match
1.77 goals/matchGoals allowed26/26▲ 1.15 goals/match
1.65 xG/match ▲Expected goals23/241.1 xG/match
13.5 shots/matchShots26/2612.8 shots/match
4.85 shots/match ▲Shots on target26/264.5 shots/match
46.1%Possession26/26● 47.7%
5.35 corners/match ●Corners26/264.15 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards6/103 cards/match
12.5 fouls/matchFouls26/2610.5 fouls/match

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2Minnesota United
1Draws
2Houston Dynamo
Minnesota United — Houston Dynamo · Major League Soccer3–1
Houston Dynamo — Minnesota United · Major League Soccer2–0
Houston Dynamo — Minnesota United · Major League Soccer1–1
Minnesota United — Houston Dynamo · Major League Soccer1–2
Houston Dynamo — Minnesota United · Major League Soccer0–3

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples26 / 26home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
Freshness21 daysfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 11 Oct 2026, 00:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Major League Soccer

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsMinnesota UnitedHouston Dynamo
CompetitionMajor League Soccer
Head-to-headMinnesota United — Houston Dynamo
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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