PitchMath
Major League Soccer · 2026

Atlanta United vs FC Cincinnati · Major League Soccer

vsPre-match analysis

Season

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Goals scored
1.162.17
Expected goals
1.421.68
Shots
1314
Possession
51.2%50.5%

30-second read

What the record shows

The story here is recent context rather than season averages: FC Cincinnati's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. Alongside it: FC Cincinnati's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

FC Cincinnati's recent record differs from the season

moderate

FC Cincinnati's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.17 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.2 goals/match2.17 goals/match1.56 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

FC Cincinnati have a visible away split

moderate

FC Cincinnati's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

11.2 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season14 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots11.2 shots/match14 shots/match12.9 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Atlanta United favored in 4 of 13 directional metrics · FC Cincinnati in 7 · 2 too close

recorded edge higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Atlanta United25 matchesFC Cincinnati24 matches
1.16 goals/matchGoals scored25/24▲ 2.17 goals/match
1.72 goals/match ▲Goals allowed25/242.46 goals/match
1.42 xG/matchExpected goals22/22▲ 1.68 xG/match
13 shots/matchShots25/24▲ 14 shots/match
3.88 shots/matchShots on target25/24▲ 6 shots/match
51.2% ●Possession25/2450.5%
5.08 corners/match ●Corners25/244.92 corners/match
2.67 cards/matchCards6/92.78 cards/match
11.2 fouls/matchFouls25/2411.3 fouls/match

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Atlanta United
1Draws
3FC Cincinnati
FC Cincinnati — Atlanta United · Major League Soccer2–0
Atlanta United — FC Cincinnati · Major League Soccer4–2
FC Cincinnati — Atlanta United · Major League Soccer2–2
FC Cincinnati — Atlanta United · Major League Soccer1–0
Atlanta United — FC Cincinnati · Major League Soccer1–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples25 / 24home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
Freshness28 daysstale at cutoff
  • At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The nearest completed-match evidence is stale relative to this fixture cutoff.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 10 Oct 2026, 23:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Major League Soccer

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsAtlanta UnitedFC Cincinnati
CompetitionMajor League Soccer
Head-to-headAtlanta United — FC Cincinnati
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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