PitchMath
Major League Soccer · 2026

Austin FC vs Nashville SC · Major League Soccer

vsPre-match analysis

Season

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Goals scored
1.232.04
Expected goals
0.941.36
Shots
10.412
Possession
48.9%53.7%

30-second read

What the record shows

One pattern stands out in the record: austin FC's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines. The next-strongest reading is weaker: nashville SC's last-five shots average is above their season average. Limitation: Lineup availability and tactical choices are not in the retained data.

Nashville SC's recent record differs from the season

weak

Nashville SC's last-five shots average is above their season average.

14.8 shots/match ▲ShotsLast 5 · Season12 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots14.8 shots/match12 shots/match12.8 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Austin FC show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Austin FC's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

10.4 shots/match ▲ShotsAustin FC · Nashville SC12 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricAustin FCNashville SCBaseline
Shots10.4 shots/match12 shots/match12.8 shots/match
Shots against16.3 shots/match10.9 shots/match12.9 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Austin FC favored in 0 of 13 directional metrics · Nashville SC in 11 · 2 too close

recorded edge higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Austin FC26 matchesNashville SC26 matches
1.23 goals/matchGoals scored26/26▲ 2.04 goals/match
1.69 goals/matchGoals allowed26/26▲ 0.81 goals/match
0.94 xG/matchExpected goals23/23▲ 1.36 xG/match
10.4 shots/matchShots26/26▲ 12 shots/match
3.92 shots/matchShots on target26/26▲ 4.69 shots/match
48.9%Possession26/26● 53.7%
4.5 corners/matchCorners26/26● 5.15 corners/match
2.8 cards/matchCards5/51.8 cards/match
10.7 fouls/matchFouls26/2611.8 fouls/match

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Austin FC
1Draws
2Nashville SC
Nashville SC — Austin FC · Major League Soccer0–2
Austin FC — Nashville SC · Major League Soccer1–1
Nashville SC — Austin FC · Major League Soccer3–0
Nashville SC — Austin FC · Major League Soccer1–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples26 / 26home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
Freshness21 daysfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 11 Oct 2026, 00:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Major League Soccer

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsAustin FCNashville SC
CompetitionMajor League Soccer
Head-to-headAustin FC — Nashville SC
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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