Major League Soccer · 2026Sat, 26 Sept 2026, 23:30 UTCSports Illustrated Stadium

New York Red Bulls

WLLDL

vsPre-match analysis

St.Louis City

WDWDW

30-second read

What the record shows

One pattern stands out in the record: each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline. The next-strongest reading is weaker: new York Red Bulls's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. Limitation: At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

New York Red Bulls's recent record differs from the season

weak

New York Red Bulls's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.45 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1.2 goals/match	1.45 goals/match	1.56 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Both teams have elevated corners records

moderate

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

5.86 corners/match ●CornersNew York Red Bulls · St. Louis City5.76 corners/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

Metric	New York Red Bulls	St. Louis City	Baseline
Corners	5.86 corners/match	5.76 corners/match	4.93 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: New York Red Bulls favored in 2 of 13 directional metrics · St.Louis City in 5 · 6 too close

recorded edge higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

New York Red Bulls22 matchesSt.Louis City21 matches

1.45 goals/matchGoals scored22/211.43 goals/match

2.09 goals/matchGoals allowed22/21▲ 1.29 goals/match

1.65 xG/match ▲Expected goals19/181.56 xG/match

13.6 shots/matchShots22/2114.1 shots/match

4.91 shots/match ▲Shots on target22/214.52 shots/match

53.2% ●Possession22/2151.2%

5.86 corners/match ●Corners22/215.76 corners/match

2.5 cards/matchCards6/72.57 cards/match

11.8 fouls/matchFouls22/2113.8 fouls/match

Style profile

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

New York Red Bulls75.0

St.Louis City65.0

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

New York Red Bulls60.5

St.Louis City53.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

New York Red Bulls19.4

St.Louis City82.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

New York Red Bulls41.7

St.Louis City68.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

New York Red Bulls50.9

St.Louis City70.0

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 64%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

New York Red Bulls88.3

St.Louis City81.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

New York Red Bulls70.4

St.Louis City73.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

Matches in previous 14 days · Both teams: 0 matches

28 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/135 days

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited

Season samples22 / 21home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

Freshness35 daysstale at cutoff

At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
The nearest completed-match evidence is stale relative to this fixture cutoff.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 26 Sept 2026, 23:30 UTC · analysis-v4