PitchMath
Major League Soccer · 2026

New York Red Bulls 0–3 St.Louis City · Major League Soccer

0–3Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

St.Louis City won 0–3.

Shots
1015
Shots on target
58
Expected goals
1.192.21
Possession
45%55%

Full time

What the match recorded

St.Louis City beat New York Red Bulls 3–0. Recorded in this match (New York Red Bulls – St.Louis City): shots 10–15, shots on target 5–8, expected goals 1.19–2.21, possession 45%–55%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

St.Louis City's recent record differs from the season

moderate

St.Louis City's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

3 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.78 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for3 goals/match1.78 goals/match1.53 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Both teams have elevated corners records

weak

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

5.67 corners/match ●CornersNew York Red Bulls · St.Louis City5.48 corners/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricNew York Red BullsSt.Louis CityBaseline
Corners5.67 corners/match5.48 corners/match4.94 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots10 shots15 shotsNew York Red Bulls 10 shots, St.Louis City 15 shots
  • Shots on target5 shots8 shotsNew York Red Bulls 5 shots, St.Louis City 8 shots
  • Expected goals1.19 xG2.21 xGNew York Red Bulls 1.19 xG, St.Louis City 2.21 xG
  • Possession45%55%New York Red Bulls 45%, St.Louis City 55%
  • Corners4 corners3 cornersNew York Red Bulls 4 corners, St.Louis City 3 corners
  • Fouls12 fouls12 foulsNew York Red Bulls 12 fouls, St.Louis City 12 fouls
  • Yellow cards1 card1 cardNew York Red Bulls 1 card, St.Louis City 1 card
  • Passes423 passes505 passesNew York Red Bulls 423 passes, St.Louis City 505 passes
  • Pass accuracy79.9%81.8%New York Red Bulls 79.9%, St.Louis City 81.8%
  • Shots inside box5 shots10 shotsNew York Red Bulls 5 shots, St.Louis City 10 shots
  • Blocked shots2 blocks4 blocksNew York Red Bulls 2 blocks, St.Louis City 4 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves5 saves4 savesNew York Red Bulls 5 saves, St.Louis City 4 saves
  • Offsides3 offsides4 offsidesNew York Red Bulls 3 offsides, St.Louis City 4 offsides

As it happened

Key moments

  1. 5′Rafael NavarroGoal · St.Louis City
  2. 35′Timo BaumgartlYellow card · St.Louis City
  3. Half-time
  4. 86′Emil ForsbergYellow card · New York Red Bulls
  5. 87′Simon BecherGoal · St.Louis City
  6. 90′Tomáš OstrákGoal · St.Louis City
  7. Full time
Player changes · 9grouped by team and minute
  • 63′New York Red Bulls · 1 player changeConnor Faello
  • 64′New York Red Bulls · 1 player changePedro Castro
  • 71′St.Louis City · 2 player changesJeong Sang-bin · Simon Becher
  • 84′New York Red Bulls · 1 player changeNathan Worth
  • 85′St.Louis City · 2 player changesLukas MacNaughton · Tomáš Ostrák
  • 87′New York Red Bulls · 2 player changesRobert Voloder · Andy Rojas

Who started

Lineups

Show both lineups

Lineups as recorded. The source does not mark them confirmed.

New York Red Bulls4-3-3
  1. Ethan HorvathG
  2. Robert VoloderD
  3. Dylan NealisD
  4. Julián BazánD
  5. Tim ParkerD
  6. Mohammed SofoM
  7. Nehuen BenedettiM
  8. Sekou KoneM
  9. Cade CowellF
  10. Emil ForsbergF
  11. Eric Maxim Choupo-MotingF
St.Louis City3-4-3
  1. Roman BürkiG
  2. Conrad WallemD
  3. Tomas TotlandD
  4. Fallou FallD
  5. Timo BaumgartlD
  6. Jaziel OrozcoD
  7. Christopher DurkinM
  8. Alexandru MățanM
  9. Rafael NavarroF
  10. Carlo HolseF
  11. Jeong Sang-binF

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: New York Red Bulls favored in 0 of 13 directional metrics · St.Louis City in 10 · 3 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

New York Red Bulls27 matchesSt.Louis City27 matches
1.26 goals/matchGoals scored27/27▲ 1.78 goals/match
1.89 goals/matchGoals allowed27/27▲ 1.33 goals/match
1.53 xG/matchExpected goals24/24▲ 1.7 xG/match
13 shots/matchShots27/27▲ 13.8 shots/match
4.59 shots/matchShots on target27/27▲ 4.96 shots/match
51.8%Possession27/27● 52.2%
5.67 corners/match ●Corners27/275.48 corners/match
2.5 cards/matchCards6/82.25 cards/match
12.3 fouls/matchFouls27/2714 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples27 / 27home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Thu, 1 Oct 2026, 03:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Major League Soccer

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsNew York Red BullsSt.Louis City
CompetitionMajor League Soccer
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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