Major League Soccer · 2026Sat, 12 Sept 2026, 23:30 UTCScheduledPre-match analysis

DC United

DLDDD

vsPre-match analysis

Atlanta United

LDLLD

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: DC United's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Atlanta United have recorded the higher season possession share. Limitation: At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

DC United's recent record differs from the season

moderate

DC United's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.38 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1.8 goals/match	1.38 goals/match	1.63 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Atlanta United have recorded the higher season possession share.

39.5%PossessionDC United · Atlanta United●52.7%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 13.2 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	DC United	Atlanta United	Baseline
Possession	39.5%	52.7%	49.9%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0DC United

1Draws

0Atlanta United

21 Mar 2026Atlanta United FC — DC United · Major League Soccer0–0

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

DC United favored in 3 of 13 directional metrics · Atlanta United in 4 · 6 too close

1.38 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 16/161 goals/match

1.63 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 16/161.63 goals/match

1.4 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 13/131.35 xG/match

1.46 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 13/131.45 xG/match

11.8 shots/matchShotsseason · 16/16▲13 shots/match

13.9 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 16/16▲11.6 shots/match

4.19 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 16/164.19 shots/match

5.25 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 16/16▲4.38 shots/match

39.5%Possessionseason · 16/16●52.7%

4.56 corners/matchCornersseason · 16/16●4.88 corners/match

5.63 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 16/16▲4.81 corners/match

2.4 cards/matchCardsseason · 5/42.5 cards/match

14.2 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 16/1611.6 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

25%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 16/166%

69%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 16/1656%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

DC United1.7

Atlanta United65

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

DC United31.6

Atlanta United25.6

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

DC United31.1

Atlanta United62.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

DC United81.7

Atlanta United38.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

DC United67.5

Atlanta United45.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 63%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

DC United40

Atlanta United55

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

DC United47.5

Atlanta United42.1

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

DC United16 matchesAtlanta United16 matches

1.38 goals/match▲Goals scored16/161 goals/match

1.63 goals/matchGoals allowed16/161.63 goals/match

1.4 xG/matchExpected goals13/131.35 xG/match

11.8 shots/matchShots16/16▲13 shots/match

4.19 shots/matchShots on target16/164.19 shots/match

39.5%Possession16/16●52.7%

4.56 corners/matchCorners16/16●4.88 corners/match

2.4 cards/matchCards5/42.5 cards/match

14.2 fouls/matchFouls16/1611.6 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

DC United7 matchesAtlanta United8 matches

1.57 goals/match▲Goals scored7/80.63 goals/match

2.29 goals/matchGoals allowed7/8▲1.5 goals/match

1.19 xG/matchExpected goals5/6▲1.36 xG/match

13.3 shots/matchShots7/812.6 shots/match

5.29 shots/match▲Shots on target7/83.75 shots/match

43.1%Possession7/8●50.3%

5.71 corners/match●Corners7/85.25 corners/match

2 cards/matchCards3/2—

15.3 fouls/matchFouls7/812.8 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

52 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/152 days

0 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/10 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited

Season samples16 / 16home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

Freshness52 daysstale at cutoff

At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
The nearest completed-match evidence is stale relative to this fixture cutoff.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 12 Sept 2026, 23:30 UTC · analysis-v4