PitchMath
Major League Soccer · 2026

Orlando City SC 3–0 Toronto FC · Major League Soccer

3–0Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Orlando City SC won 3–0.

Shots
1318
Shots on target
84
Expected goals
2.052.51
Possession
58%42%

Full time

What the match recorded

Orlando City SC beat Toronto FC 3–0. Recorded in this match (Orlando City SC – Toronto FC): shots 13–18, shots on target 8–4, expected goals 2.05–2.51, possession 58%–42%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Orlando City SC's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Orlando City SC's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.4 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.76 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.4 goals/match1.76 goals/match1.59 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

moderate

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Orlando City SC, Toronto FC.

3 days ▲Rest daysOrlando City SC · Toronto FC3 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricOrlando City SCToronto FCBaseline
Rest days3 days3 days—
Matches last 14 days3 matches3 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Toronto FC show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Toronto FC's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

11.9 shots/match ▲ShotsOrlando City SC · Toronto FC12.1 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricOrlando City SCToronto FCBaseline
Shots11.9 shots/match12.1 shots/match12.9 shots/match
Shots against16.8 shots/match12.6 shots/match12.7 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots13 shots18 shotsOrlando City SC 13 shots, Toronto FC 18 shots
  • Shots on target8 shots4 shotsOrlando City SC 8 shots, Toronto FC 4 shots
  • Expected goals2.05 xG2.51 xGOrlando City SC 2.05 xG, Toronto FC 2.51 xG
  • Possession58%42%Orlando City SC 58%, Toronto FC 42%
  • Corners4 corners3 cornersOrlando City SC 4 corners, Toronto FC 3 corners
  • Fouls13 fouls8 foulsOrlando City SC 13 fouls, Toronto FC 8 fouls
  • Yellow cards3 cards2 cardsOrlando City SC 3 cards, Toronto FC 2 cards
  • Passes523 passes362 passesOrlando City SC 523 passes, Toronto FC 362 passes
  • Pass accuracy86%88.1%Orlando City SC 86%, Toronto FC 88.1%
  • Shots inside box6 shots15 shotsOrlando City SC 6 shots, Toronto FC 15 shots
  • Blocked shots2 blocks5 blocksOrlando City SC 2 blocks, Toronto FC 5 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves4 saves5 savesOrlando City SC 4 saves, Toronto FC 5 saves
  • Offsides2 offsides3 offsidesOrlando City SC 2 offsides, Toronto FC 3 offsides

As it happened

Key moments

  1. 20′Luis OtávioYellow card · Orlando City SC
  2. 27′Joran GerbetYellow card · Orlando City SC
  3. 32′Walker ZimmermanGoal · Toronto FC
  4. 45′Antoine GriezmannGoal · Orlando City SC
  5. Half-time
  6. 55′Derrick EtienneYellow card · Toronto FC
  7. 60′Alonso CoelloYellow card · Toronto FC
  8. 82′Harvey SarajianGoal · Orlando City SC
  9. 90′Iago SilvaYellow card · Orlando City SC
  10. 90′Iván AnguloGoal · Orlando City SC
  11. Full time
Player changes · 10grouped by team and minute
  • 46′Toronto FC · 1 player changeAlonso Coello
  • 46′Orlando City SC · 1 player changeWilder Cartagena
  • 64′Orlando City SC · 1 player changeBernardo Rhein
  • 65′Orlando City SC · 1 player changeDaryl Dike
  • 65′Toronto FC · 2 player changesNickseon Gomis · Malik Henry
  • 70′Orlando City SC · 1 player changeJustin Ellis
  • 72′Toronto FC · 1 player changeEmilio Aristizábal
  • 80′Orlando City SC · 1 player changeHarvey Sarajian
  • 80′Toronto FC · 1 player changeRaheem Edwards

Who started

Lineups

Show both lineups

Confirmed lineups as published before kick-off.

Orlando City SC4-4-2
  1. Maxime CrépeauG
  2. David BrekaloD
  3. Robin JanssonD
  4. Griffin DorseyD
  5. Bernardo RheinD
  6. Eduard AtuestaM
  7. Justin EllisM
  8. Joran GerbetM
  9. Iván AnguloM
  10. Antoine GriezmannF
  11. Martín OjedaF
Toronto FC4-2-3-1
  1. Luka GavranG
  2. Benjamin KuscevicD
  3. Richie LaryeaD
  4. Walker ZimmermanD
  5. Jackson GilmanD
  6. Niklas DorschM
  7. Alonso CoelloM
  8. Lewis MorganM
  9. Josh SargentF
  10. Derrick EtienneF
  11. Dániel SallóiF

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

3Orlando City SC
0Draws
2Toronto FC
Toronto FC — Orlando City SC · Major League Soccer4–2
Orlando City SC — Toronto FC · Major League Soccer4–2
Toronto FC — Orlando City SC · Major League Soccer1–2
Orlando City SC — Toronto FC · Major League Soccer1–2
Toronto FC — Orlando City SC · Major League Soccer0–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Orlando City SC favored in 5 of 13 directional metrics · Toronto FC in 5 · 3 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Orlando City SC25 matchesToronto FC25 matches
1.76 goals/match ▲Goals scored25/251.52 goals/match
2.24 goals/matchGoals allowed25/25▲ 1.84 goals/match
1.56 xG/match ▲Expected goals21/231.2 xG/match
11.9 shots/matchShots24/2512.1 shots/match
4.92 shots/match ▲Shots on target24/254.48 shots/match
48.6% ●Possession24/2545.7%
4 corners/matchCorners24/25● 4.92 corners/match
2.75 cards/matchCards4/62 cards/match
10.4 fouls/matchFouls24/2511.3 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples25 / 25home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 13 Sept 2026, 03:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Major League Soccer

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsOrlando City SCToronto FC
CompetitionMajor League Soccer
Head-to-headOrlando City SC — Toronto FC
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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