Major League Soccer · 2026Sat, 12 Sept 2026, 23:30 UTCScheduledPre-match analysis

FC Cincinnati

DLDWW

vsPre-match analysis

Charlotte FC

DLWWD

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: FC Cincinnati's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Charlotte FC's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

FC Cincinnati's recent record differs from the season

moderate

FC Cincinnati's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

3.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.5 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	3.6 goals/match	2.5 goals/match	1.63 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Charlotte FC have a visible away split

moderate

Charlotte FC's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

7.83 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season11.5 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

Metric	Away only	Season	Baseline
Shots	7.83 shots/match	11.5 shots/match	13 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0FC Cincinnati

1Draws

0Charlotte FC

9 May 2026Charlotte — FC Cincinnati · Major League Soccer2–2

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

FC Cincinnati favored in 5 of 13 directional metrics · Charlotte FC in 5 · 3 too close

2.5 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 16/161.63 goals/match

2.5 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 16/16▲1.56 goals/match

1.8 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 14/131.61 xG/match

1.71 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 14/13▲1.22 xG/match

13.3 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 16/1611.5 shots/match

16.2 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 16/16▲13.5 shots/match

5.69 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 16/164.88 shots/match

5.69 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 16/16▲5.38 shots/match

48.7%●Possessionseason · 16/1647.3%

4.44 corners/matchCornersseason · 16/16●4.75 corners/match

4.81 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 16/16▲4.25 corners/match

2.86 cards/matchCardsseason · 7/52.4 cards/match

12.5 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 16/169.63 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

13%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 16/1613%

88%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 16/1675%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

FC Cincinnati45

Charlotte FC31.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

FC Cincinnati81.1

Charlotte FC47.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

FC Cincinnati13.3

Charlotte FC33.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

FC Cincinnati58.3

Charlotte FC28.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

FC Cincinnati66.7

Charlotte FC25.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 66%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

FC Cincinnati28.3

Charlotte FC48.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

FC Cincinnati60.4

Charlotte FC35.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

FC Cincinnati16 matchesCharlotte FC16 matches

2.5 goals/match▲Goals scored16/161.63 goals/match

2.5 goals/matchGoals allowed16/16▲1.56 goals/match

1.8 xG/match▲Expected goals14/131.61 xG/match

13.3 shots/match▲Shots16/1611.5 shots/match

5.69 shots/match▲Shots on target16/164.88 shots/match

48.7%●Possession16/1647.3%

4.44 corners/matchCorners16/16●4.75 corners/match

2.86 cards/matchCards7/52.4 cards/match

12.5 fouls/matchFouls16/169.63 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

FC Cincinnati8 matchesCharlotte FC6 matches

3 goals/match▲Goals scored8/61 goals/match

2.13 goals/match▲Goals allowed8/62.33 goals/match

2.19 xG/match▲Expected goals7/41.14 xG/match

14.8 shots/match▲Shots8/67.83 shots/match

5.88 shots/match▲Shots on target8/63 shots/match

50.1%●Possession8/643.3%

4.38 corners/match●Corners8/63 corners/match

—Cards2/2—

13.9 fouls/matchFouls8/610.8 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

52 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/152 days

0 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/10 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited

Season samples16 / 16home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

Freshness52 daysstale at cutoff

At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
The nearest completed-match evidence is stale relative to this fixture cutoff.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 12 Sept 2026, 23:30 UTC · analysis-v4