PitchMath
Major League Soccer · 2026

FC Cincinnati 3–3 Charlotte FC · Major League Soccer

3–3Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

FC Cincinnati and Charlotte FC drew 3–3.

Shots
298
Shots on target
104
Expected goals
2.441.59
Possession
69%31%

Full time

What the match recorded

FC Cincinnati and Charlotte FC drew 3–3. Recorded in this match (FC Cincinnati – Charlotte FC): shots 29–8, shots on target 10–4, expected goals 2.44–1.59, possession 69%–31%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

FC Cincinnati's recent record differs from the season

moderate

FC Cincinnati's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.17 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.2 goals/match2.17 goals/match1.59 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

moderate

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for FC Cincinnati, Charlotte FC.

2.99 days ▲Rest daysFC Cincinnati · Charlotte FC3 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricFC CincinnatiCharlotte FCBaseline
Rest days2.99 days3 days—
Matches last 14 days2 matches3 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

FC Cincinnati have a visible home split

moderate

FC Cincinnati's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

16.8 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season14 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots16.8 shots/match14 shots/match12.9 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots29 shots8 shotsFC Cincinnati 29 shots, Charlotte FC 8 shots
  • Shots on target10 shots4 shotsFC Cincinnati 10 shots, Charlotte FC 4 shots
  • Expected goals2.44 xG1.59 xGFC Cincinnati 2.44 xG, Charlotte FC 1.59 xG
  • Possession69%31%FC Cincinnati 69%, Charlotte FC 31%
  • Corners12 corners3 cornersFC Cincinnati 12 corners, Charlotte FC 3 corners
  • Fouls6 fouls10 foulsFC Cincinnati 6 fouls, Charlotte FC 10 fouls
  • Yellow cards2 cards1 cardFC Cincinnati 2 cards, Charlotte FC 1 card
  • Passes648 passes290 passesFC Cincinnati 648 passes, Charlotte FC 290 passes
  • Pass accuracy90.3%82.4%FC Cincinnati 90.3%, Charlotte FC 82.4%
  • Shots inside box18 shots5 shotsFC Cincinnati 18 shots, Charlotte FC 5 shots
  • Blocked shots8 blocks1 blockFC Cincinnati 8 blocks, Charlotte FC 1 block
  • Goalkeeper saves1 save7 savesFC Cincinnati 1 save, Charlotte FC 7 saves

As it happened

Key moments

  1. 2′Pavel BuchaGoal · FC Cincinnati
  2. 7′Liel AbadaGoal · Charlotte FC
  3. 17′Pep BielPenalty goal · Charlotte FC
  4. Half-time
  5. 51′Kévin DenkeyGoal · FC Cincinnati
  6. 55′Idan ToklomatiGoal · Charlotte FC
  7. 76′Samuel GidiYellow card · FC Cincinnati
  8. 81′Kenji Mboma DemYellow card · FC Cincinnati
  9. 83′Rodolfo AlokoYellow card · Charlotte FC
  10. 90′Kévin DenkeyGoal · FC Cincinnati
  11. Full time
Player changes · 9grouped by team and minute
  • 44′Charlotte FC · 1 player changeRodolfo Aloko
  • 56′FC Cincinnati · 1 player changeBryan Ramirez
  • 70′Charlotte FC · 1 player changeBrandt Bronico
  • 74′FC Cincinnati · 2 player changesTeenage Hadebe · Kristian Fletcher
  • 78′Charlotte FC · 2 player changesMorrison Agyemang · Tyger Smalls
  • 85′FC Cincinnati · 2 player changesKyle Smith · Ayoub Jabbari

Who started

Lineups

Show both lineups

Confirmed lineups as published before kick-off.

FC Cincinnati3-5-2
  1. Roman CelentanoG
  2. Miles RobinsonD
  3. Stefan ChirillaD
  4. Pavel BuchaD
  5. Kyle SmithD
  6. Ender EcheniqueD
  7. EvanderM
  8. Samuel GidiM
  9. Gerardo ValenzuelaM
  10. Kévin DenkeyF
  11. Ayoub JabbariF
Charlotte FC4-3-3
  1. Kristijan KahlinaG
  2. Tim ReamD
  3. Nathan ByrneD
  4. Henry KesslerD
  5. David SchneggD
  6. Pep BielM
  7. Luca De La TorreM
  8. Djibril DianiM
  9. Idan ToklomatiF
  10. Allan Saint-MaximinF
  11. Liel AbadaF

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0FC Cincinnati
2Draws
3Charlotte FC
Charlotte FC — FC Cincinnati · Major League Soccer2–2
FC Cincinnati — Charlotte FC · Major League Soccer0–1
Charlotte FC — FC Cincinnati · Major League Soccer2–0
FC Cincinnati — Charlotte FC · Major League Soccer1–3
Charlotte FC — FC Cincinnati · Major League Soccer1–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: FC Cincinnati favored in 6 of 13 directional metrics · Charlotte FC in 3 · 4 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

FC Cincinnati24 matchesCharlotte FC25 matches
2.17 goals/match ▲Goals scored24/251.8 goals/match
2.46 goals/matchGoals allowed24/25▲ 1.44 goals/match
1.68 xG/match ▲Expected goals22/221.49 xG/match
14 shots/match ▲Shots24/2511.2 shots/match
6 shots/match ▲Shots on target24/254.8 shots/match
50.5% ●Possession24/2545.6%
4.92 corners/match ●Corners24/254.56 corners/match
2.78 cards/matchCards9/92.22 cards/match
11.3 fouls/matchFouls24/259.56 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples24 / 25home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 13 Sept 2026, 03:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Major League Soccer

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsFC CincinnatiCharlotte FC
CompetitionMajor League Soccer
Head-to-headFC Cincinnati — Charlotte FC
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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