PitchMath
Major League Soccer · 2026

Toronto FC 2–1 Nashville SC · Major League Soccer

2–1Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Toronto FC won 2–1.

Shots
1611
Shots on target
75
Expected goals
1.760.89
Possession
42%58%

Full time

What the match recorded

Toronto FC beat Nashville SC 2–1. Recorded in this match (Toronto FC – Nashville SC): shots 16–11, shots on target 7–5, expected goals 1.76–0.89, possession 42%–58%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Toronto FC's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Toronto FC's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.4 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.58 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.4 goals/match1.58 goals/match1.58 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Toronto FC.

4 days ▲Rest daysToronto FC · Nashville SC5 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricToronto FCNashville SCBaseline
Rest days4 days5 days—
Matches last 14 days2 matches2 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Nashville SC have a visible away split

moderate

Nashville SC's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

9.83 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season11.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots9.83 shots/match11.8 shots/match12.8 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots16 shots11 shotsToronto FC 16 shots, Nashville SC 11 shots
  • Shots on target7 shots5 shotsToronto FC 7 shots, Nashville SC 5 shots
  • Expected goals1.76 xG0.89 xGToronto FC 1.76 xG, Nashville SC 0.89 xG
  • Possession42%58%Toronto FC 42%, Nashville SC 58%
  • Corners3 corners8 cornersToronto FC 3 corners, Nashville SC 8 corners
  • Fouls9 fouls10 foulsToronto FC 9 fouls, Nashville SC 10 fouls
  • Yellow cards1 card0 cardsToronto FC 1 card, Nashville SC 0 cards
  • Passes362 passes507 passesToronto FC 362 passes, Nashville SC 507 passes
  • Pass accuracy82.3%86.2%Toronto FC 82.3%, Nashville SC 86.2%
  • Shots inside box13 shots8 shotsToronto FC 13 shots, Nashville SC 8 shots
  • Blocked shots2 blocks4 blocksToronto FC 2 blocks, Nashville SC 4 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves5 saves5 savesToronto FC 5 saves, Nashville SC 5 saves
  • Offsides1 offside6 offsidesToronto FC 1 offside, Nashville SC 6 offsides

As it happened

Key moments

  1. 3′Niklas DorschGoal · Toronto FC
  2. Half-time
  3. 72′Dániel SallóiGoal · Toronto FC
  4. 90′Emilio AristizábalGoal · Toronto FC
  5. Full time
Player changes · 9grouped by team and minute
  • 59′Toronto FC · 2 player changesNickseon Gomis · Theo Corbeanu
  • 60′Toronto FC · 1 player changeMatheus Pereira
  • 66′Nashville SC · 1 player changeAhmed Qasem
  • 70′Toronto FC · 1 player changeMarkus Cimermancic
  • 74′Nashville SC · 2 player changesAndy Najar · Patrick Yazbek
  • 75′Toronto FC · 1 player changeEmilio Aristizábal
  • 87′Nashville SC · 1 player changeShakur Mohammed

Who started

Lineups

Show both lineups

Confirmed lineups as published before kick-off.

Toronto FC4-2-3-1
  1. Luka GavranG
  2. Matheus PereiraD
  3. Benjamin KuscevicD
  4. Richie LaryeaD
  5. Walker ZimmermanD
  6. Đorđe MihailovićM
  7. Alonso CoelloM
  8. Markus CimermancicM
  9. Theo CorbeanuF
  10. Josh SargentF
  11. Dániel SallóiF
Nashville SC4-3-3
  1. Brian SchwakeG
  2. Maxwell WoledziD
  3. Jeisson PalaciosD
  4. Reed Baker-WhitingD
  5. Andy NajarD
  6. Patrick YazbekM
  7. Elias SaadM
  8. Edvard TagsethM
  9. Cristian EspinozaF
  10. Sam SurridgeF
  11. Hany MukhtarF

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Toronto FC
1Draws
4Nashville SC
Nashville SC — Toronto FC · Major League Soccer1–0
Toronto FC — Nashville SC · Major League Soccer1–2
Toronto FC — Nashville SC · Major League Soccer1–2
Nashville SC — Toronto FC · Major League Soccer2–0
Toronto FC — Nashville SC · Major League Soccer1–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Toronto FC favored in 1 of 13 directional metrics · Nashville SC in 10 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Toronto FC24 matchesNashville SC24 matches
1.58 goals/matchGoals scored24/24▲ 2 goals/match
1.79 goals/matchGoals allowed24/24▲ 0.79 goals/match
1.14 xG/matchExpected goals22/21▲ 1.27 xG/match
11.8 shots/matchShots24/2411.8 shots/match
4.5 shots/matchShots on target24/24▲ 4.75 shots/match
45.8%Possession24/24● 54.2%
5 corners/matchCorners24/24● 5.25 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards6/51.8 cards/match
11.4 fouls/matchFouls24/2411.6 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples24 / 24home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Thu, 10 Sept 2026, 03:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Major League Soccer

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsToronto FCNashville SC
CompetitionMajor League Soccer
Head-to-headToronto FC — Nashville SC
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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