PitchMath
Major League Soccer · 2026

Atlanta United 2–3 Orlando City SC · Major League Soccer

2–3Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Orlando City SC won 2–3.

Shots
1514
Shots on target
27
Expected goals
0.992.63
Possession
40%60%

Full time

What the match recorded

Orlando City SC beat Atlanta United 3–2. Recorded in this match (Atlanta United – Orlando City SC): shots 15–14, shots on target 2–7, expected goals 0.99–2.63, possession 40%–60%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Atlanta United's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Atlanta United's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.6 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.21 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.6 goals/match1.21 goals/match1.58 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Atlanta United, Orlando City SC.

3.93 days ▲Rest daysAtlanta United · Orlando City SC4 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricAtlanta UnitedOrlando City SCBaseline
Rest days3.93 days4 days—
Matches last 14 days2 matches2 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Atlanta United show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Atlanta United's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

12.7 shots/match ▲ShotsAtlanta United · Orlando City SC11.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricAtlanta UnitedOrlando City SCBaseline
Shots12.7 shots/match11.8 shots/match12.8 shots/match
Shots against12.4 shots/match16.7 shots/match12.7 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots15 shots14 shotsAtlanta United 15 shots, Orlando City SC 14 shots
  • Shots on target2 shots7 shotsAtlanta United 2 shots, Orlando City SC 7 shots
  • Expected goals0.99 xG2.63 xGAtlanta United 0.99 xG, Orlando City SC 2.63 xG
  • Possession40%60%Atlanta United 40%, Orlando City SC 60%
  • Corners7 corners5 cornersAtlanta United 7 corners, Orlando City SC 5 corners
  • Fouls9 fouls9 foulsAtlanta United 9 fouls, Orlando City SC 9 fouls
  • Yellow cards1 card2 cardsAtlanta United 1 card, Orlando City SC 2 cards
  • Passes434 passes663 passesAtlanta United 434 passes, Orlando City SC 663 passes
  • Pass accuracy86.6%87.8%Atlanta United 86.6%, Orlando City SC 87.8%
  • Shots inside box13 shots11 shotsAtlanta United 13 shots, Orlando City SC 11 shots
  • Blocked shots4 blocks3 blocksAtlanta United 4 blocks, Orlando City SC 3 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves4 saves1 saveAtlanta United 4 saves, Orlando City SC 1 save
  • Offsides6 offsides3 offsidesAtlanta United 6 offsides, Orlando City SC 3 offsides

As it happened

Key moments

  1. 7′Breel EmboloGoal · Atlanta United
  2. 26′Antoine GriezmannGoal · Orlando City SC
  3. 42′David BrekaloYellow card · Orlando City SC
  4. Half-time
  5. 58′Iván AnguloGoal · Orlando City SC
  6. 67′Tomás JacobYellow card · Atlanta United
  7. 77′Antoine GriezmannGoal · Orlando City SC
  8. 88′Justin EllisYellow card · Orlando City SC
  9. 90′Tyrese SpicerGoal · Orlando City SC
  10. Full time
Player changes · 10grouped by team and minute
  • 46′Orlando City SC · 1 player changeZakaria Taifi
  • 46′Atlanta United · 1 player changeAdrian Gill
  • 64′Atlanta United · 1 player changeLuke Brennan
  • 71′Orlando City SC · 1 player changeTyrese Spicer
  • 75′Orlando City SC · 2 player changesMarco Pašalić · Wilder Cartagena
  • 78′Atlanta United · 2 player changesSergio Santos · Enea Mihaj
  • 79′Orlando City SC · 1 player changeIago Silva
  • 79′Atlanta United · 1 player changeFafà Picault

Who started

Lineups

Show both lineups

Confirmed lineups as published before kick-off.

Atlanta United4-2-3-1
  1. Lucas HoyosG
  2. Elías BáezD
  3. Junior AlonsoD
  4. Paulo DíazD
  5. Tomás JacobD
  6. Tristan MuyumbaM
  7. William ReillyM
  8. Cooper SanchezM
  9. Miguel AlmirónF
  10. Breel EmboloF
  11. Aleksey MiranchukF
Orlando City SC4-4-2
  1. Maxime CrépeauG
  2. David BrekaloD
  3. Robin JanssonD
  4. Griffin DorseyD
  5. Bernardo RheinD
  6. Eduard AtuestaM
  7. Justin EllisM
  8. Joran GerbetM
  9. Iván AnguloM
  10. Antoine GriezmannF
  11. Daryl DikeF

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2Atlanta United
1Draws
2Orlando City SC
Orlando City SC — Atlanta United · Major League Soccer1–1
Atlanta United — Orlando City SC · Major League Soccer3–2
Orlando City SC — Atlanta United · Major League Soccer3–0
Orlando City SC — Atlanta United · Major League Soccer1–0
Orlando City SC — Atlanta United · Major League Soccer1–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Atlanta United favored in 6 of 13 directional metrics · Orlando City SC in 6 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Atlanta United24 matchesOrlando City SC24 matches
1.21 goals/matchGoals scored24/24▲ 1.71 goals/match
1.79 goals/match ▲Goals allowed24/242.33 goals/match
1.43 xG/matchExpected goals21/20▲ 1.54 xG/match
12.7 shots/match ▲Shots24/2311.8 shots/match
3.92 shots/matchShots on target24/23▲ 4.78 shots/match
50.5% ●Possession24/2348.2%
4.96 corners/match ●Corners24/234 corners/match
2.67 cards/matchCards6/42.75 cards/match
11.4 fouls/matchFouls24/2310.3 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples24 / 24home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Thu, 10 Sept 2026, 03:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Major League Soccer

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsAtlanta UnitedOrlando City SC
CompetitionMajor League Soccer
Head-to-headAtlanta United — Orlando City SC
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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