PitchMath
Major League Soccer · 2026

Toronto FC 4–4 Chicago Fire · Major League Soccer

4–4Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Toronto FC and Chicago Fire drew 4–4.

Shots
1815
Shots on target
86
Expected goals
1.281.92
Possession
43%57%

Full time

What the match recorded

Toronto FC and Chicago Fire drew 4–4. Recorded in this match (Toronto FC – Chicago Fire): shots 18–15, shots on target 8–6, expected goals 1.28–1.92, possession 43%–57%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Toronto FC's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Toronto FC's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.4 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.57 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.4 goals/match1.57 goals/match1.57 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots18 shots15 shotsToronto FC 18 shots, Chicago Fire 15 shots
  • Shots on target8 shots6 shotsToronto FC 8 shots, Chicago Fire 6 shots
  • Expected goals1.28 xG1.92 xGToronto FC 1.28 xG, Chicago Fire 1.92 xG
  • Possession43%57%Toronto FC 43%, Chicago Fire 57%
  • Corners6 corners3 cornersToronto FC 6 corners, Chicago Fire 3 corners
  • Fouls9 fouls7 foulsToronto FC 9 fouls, Chicago Fire 7 fouls
  • Yellow cards2 cards2 cardsToronto FC 2 cards, Chicago Fire 2 cards
  • Passes343 passes467 passesToronto FC 343 passes, Chicago Fire 467 passes
  • Pass accuracy83.4%86.3%Toronto FC 83.4%, Chicago Fire 86.3%
  • Shots inside box10 shots11 shotsToronto FC 10 shots, Chicago Fire 11 shots
  • Blocked shots6 blocks4 blocksToronto FC 6 blocks, Chicago Fire 4 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves3 saves4 savesToronto FC 3 saves, Chicago Fire 4 saves
  • Offsides2 offsides2 offsidesToronto FC 2 offsides, Chicago Fire 2 offsides

As it happened

Key moments

  1. 13′Maren Haile-SelassieGoal · Chicago Fire
  2. 18′Samuel RogersYellow card · Chicago Fire
  3. 27′Josh SargentGoal · Toronto FC
  4. 34′Markus CimermancicYellow card · Toronto FC
  5. 38′Josh SargentGoal · Toronto FC
  6. Half-time
  7. 49′Walker ZimmermanGoal · Toronto FC
  8. 54′Josh SargentGoal · Toronto FC
  9. 58′Maren Haile-SelassieGoal · Chicago Fire
  10. 63′Robert LewandowskiGoal · Chicago Fire
  11. 86′Robin LodYellow card · Chicago Fire
  12. 90′Benjamin KuscevicYellow card · Toronto FC
  13. 90′Derrick EtienneGoal · Toronto FC
  14. Full time
Player changes · 9grouped by team and minute
  • 46′Chicago Fire · 1 player changeNoah Allen
  • 55′Toronto FC · 1 player changeJackson Gilman
  • 66′Toronto FC · 1 player changeLewis Morgan
  • 66′Chicago Fire · 1 player changeRobin Lod
  • 77′Chicago Fire · 1 player changeSergio Oregel
  • 78′Chicago Fire · 1 player changeMauricio Pineda
  • 79′Toronto FC · 2 player changesDerrick Etienne · Emilio Aristizábal
  • 89′Chicago Fire · 1 player changeJohan Gomez

Who started

Lineups

Show both lineups

Confirmed lineups as published before kick-off.

Toronto FC4-2-3-1
  1. Luka GavranG
  2. Benjamin KuscevicD
  3. Kobe FranklinD
  4. Richie LaryeaD
  5. Walker ZimmermanD
  6. Đorđe MihailovićM
  7. Alonso CoelloM
  8. Markus CimermancicM
  9. Theo CorbeanuF
  10. Josh SargentF
  11. Derrick EtienneF
Chicago Fire4-3-3
  1. Chris BradyG
  2. Jack ElliottD
  3. Samuel RogersD
  4. Andrew GutmanD
  5. Jonathan DeanD
  6. Anton SalétrosM
  7. Robin LodM
  8. Dje Tah D'AvillaM
  9. Maren Haile-SelassieF
  10. Robert LewandowskiF
  11. Philip ZinckernagelF

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Toronto FC
2Draws
3Chicago Fire
Chicago Fire — Toronto FC · Major League Soccer2–1
Chicago Fire — Toronto FC · Major League Soccer2–2
Toronto FC — Chicago Fire · Major League Soccer1–2
Chicago Fire — Toronto FC · Major League Soccer1–1
Toronto FC — Chicago Fire · Major League Soccer1–4

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Toronto FC favored in 0 of 13 directional metrics · Chicago Fire in 10 · 3 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Toronto FC23 matchesChicago Fire22 matches
1.57 goals/matchGoals scored23/22▲ 1.95 goals/match
1.83 goals/matchGoals allowed23/22▲ 1.45 goals/match
1.11 xG/matchExpected goals21/18▲ 1.84 xG/match
11.7 shots/matchShots23/21▲ 14.2 shots/match
4.39 shots/matchShots on target23/21▲ 5.38 shots/match
46%Possession23/21● 52%
5.09 corners/match ●Corners23/214.29 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards6/42.25 cards/match
11.5 fouls/matchFouls23/2112.4 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples23 / 22home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 6 Sept 2026, 03:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Major League Soccer

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsToronto FCChicago Fire
CompetitionMajor League Soccer
Head-to-headToronto FC — Chicago Fire
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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