Major League Soccer · 2026Sat, 5 Sept 2026, 23:30 UTCScheduledPre-match analysis

Toronto FC

LLLDD

vsPre-match analysis

Chicago Fire

LWWWL

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Toronto FC's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Chicago Fire's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Toronto FC's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Toronto FC's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.38 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	0.8 goals/match	1.38 goals/match	1.63 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Chicago Fire have a visible away split

moderate

Chicago Fire's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

11.9 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season14.8 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

Metric	Away only	Season	Baseline
Shots	11.9 shots/match	14.8 shots/match	13 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Toronto FC

0Draws

1Chicago Fire

24 May 2026Chicago Fire — Toronto FC · Major League Soccer2–1

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Toronto FC favored in 1 of 13 directional metrics · Chicago Fire in 7 · 5 too close

1.38 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 16/15▲1.93 goals/match

1.81 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 16/15▲1.27 goals/match

1.14 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 14/12▲2.01 xG/match

1.14 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 14/121.4 xG/match

11.5 shots/matchShotsseason · 16/15▲14.8 shots/match

11.6 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 16/1512.1 shots/match

4.06 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 16/15▲5.13 shots/match

4.44 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 16/154.53 shots/match

47.1%Possessionseason · 16/15●52.7%

5.56 corners/match●Cornersseason · 16/154.53 corners/match

5.94 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 16/155.87 corners/match

2 cards/matchCardsseason · 4/42.25 cards/match

12.4 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 16/1513 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

19%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 16/15▲40%

81%Scoring frequencyseason · 16/15▲93%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Toronto FC28.3

Chicago Fire70

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Toronto FC25

Chicago Fire79.4

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Toronto FC56.1

Chicago Fire62.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Toronto FC31.7

Chicago Fire68.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Toronto FC43.4

Chicago Fire55

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 63%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Toronto FC78.3

Chicago Fire35

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Toronto FC45.4

Chicago Fire66.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Toronto FC16 matchesChicago Fire15 matches

1.38 goals/matchGoals scored16/15▲1.93 goals/match

1.81 goals/matchGoals allowed16/15▲1.27 goals/match

1.14 xG/matchExpected goals14/12▲2.01 xG/match

11.5 shots/matchShots16/15▲14.8 shots/match

4.06 shots/matchShots on target16/15▲5.13 shots/match

47.1%Possession16/15●52.7%

5.56 corners/match●Corners16/154.53 corners/match

2 cards/matchCards4/42.25 cards/match

12.4 fouls/matchFouls16/1513 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Toronto FC9 matchesChicago Fire7 matches

1.89 goals/matchGoals scored9/71.86 goals/match

2 goals/matchGoals allowed9/7▲1.43 goals/match

1.25 xG/matchExpected goals9/5▲1.92 xG/match

12.6 shots/match▲Shots9/711.9 shots/match

5 shots/match▲Shots on target9/74.57 shots/match

47.6%Possession9/7●50.4%

6.11 corners/match●Corners9/73.71 corners/match

—Cards2/2—

12.8 fouls/matchFouls9/713.4 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

45 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/145 days

0 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/10 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited

Season samples16 / 15home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

Freshness45 daysstale at cutoff

At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
The nearest completed-match evidence is stale relative to this fixture cutoff.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 5 Sept 2026, 23:30 UTC · analysis-v4