Major League Soccer · 2026Sun, 23 Aug 2026, 00:30 UTCScheduledPre-match analysis

St.Louis City

WDWWW

vsPre-match analysis

Houston Dynamo

LWDDW

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: St.Louis City's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

St.Louis City's recent record differs from the season

moderate

St.Louis City's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.38 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	2.4 goals/match	1.38 goals/match	1.63 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

St.Louis City favored in 3 of 14 directional metrics · Houston Dynamo in 4 · 7 too close

1.38 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 16/161.38 goals/match

1.44 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 16/161.5 goals/match

1.62 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 13/141.07 xG/match

1.18 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 13/141.18 xG/match

14.1 shots/matchShotsseason · 16/1613.4 shots/match

11.4 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 16/1612 shots/match

4.63 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 16/16▲5 shots/match

4.19 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 16/16▲3.94 shots/match

49.8%Possessionseason · 16/1644.9%

5.88 corners/matchCornersseason · 16/164.38 corners/match

4.5 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 16/165.06 corners/match

3.2 cards/matchCardsseason · 5/6▲3 cards/match

13.1 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 16/1610.3 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

13%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 16/16▲31%

75%Scoring frequencyseason · 16/1675%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

St.Louis City48.3

Houston Dynamo11.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

St.Louis City52.8

Houston Dynamo56.6

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

St.Louis City76.1

Houston Dynamo70.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

St.Louis City75

Houston Dynamo88.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

St.Louis City83.3

Houston Dynamo50

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 66%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

St.Louis City86.7

Houston Dynamo21.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

St.Louis City71.7

Houston Dynamo44.1

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

2.4 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51 goals/match

1 goals/matchGoals allowed5/51 goals/match

1.65 xG/match▲Expected goals5/50.95 xG/match

15 shots/match▲Shots5/514.2 shots/match

5.2 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲5.6 shots/match

49.6%Possession5/552.2%

4.8 corners/matchCorners5/52.8 corners/match

—Cards1/1—

14.8 fouls/matchFouls5/510.8 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

1.7 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.2 goals/match

1.5 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲0.8 goals/match

1.75 xG/match▲Expected goals10/100.9 xG/match

14.3 shots/match▲Shots10/1013.1 shots/match

4.4 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲5.2 shots/match

50.4%Possession10/1045.8%

6 corners/matchCorners10/103.2 corners/match

—Cards2/2—

14.1 fouls/matchFouls10/1010.7 fouls/match

Window

Season

16 / 16 matches

1.38 goals/matchGoals scored16/161.38 goals/match

1.44 goals/matchGoals allowed16/161.5 goals/match

1.62 xG/match▲Expected goals13/141.07 xG/match

14.1 shots/matchShots16/1613.4 shots/match

4.63 shots/matchShots on target16/16▲5 shots/match

49.8%Possession16/1644.9%

5.88 corners/matchCorners16/164.38 corners/match

3.2 cards/matchCards5/63 cards/match

13.1 fouls/matchFouls16/1610.3 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

7 / 8 matches

2 goals/match▲Goals scored7/81.63 goals/match

1.29 goals/match▲Goals allowed7/82.13 goals/match

1.7 xG/match▲Expected goals5/81.2 xG/match

15.7 shots/match▲Shots7/813.6 shots/match

5.86 shots/match▲Shots on target7/85.5 shots/match

51%Possession7/845.8%

5.71 corners/matchCorners7/83.75 corners/match

—Cards2/1—

13.4 fouls/matchFouls7/810.9 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

30.9 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/114.2 days

0 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/10 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited

Season samples16 / 16home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

Freshness31 daysstale at cutoff

At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
The nearest completed-match evidence is stale relative to this fixture cutoff.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 23 Aug 2026, 00:30 UTC · analysis-v4