Major League Soccer · 2026Sun, 23 Aug 2026, 00:30 UTCScheduledPre-match analysis

Austin FC

DLLLW

vsPre-match analysis

Philadelphia Union

LLDLW

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Philadelphia Union's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Philadelphia Union's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Philadelphia Union's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Philadelphia Union's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.31 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	2.4 goals/match	1.31 goals/match	1.63 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Philadelphia Union show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

Philadelphia Union's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

10.2 shots/match▲ShotsAustin FC · Philadelphia Union15.4 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Austin FC	Philadelphia Union	Baseline
Shots	10.2 shots/match	15.4 shots/match	13 shots/match
Shots against	17.6 shots/match	9.38 shots/match	12.3 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Austin FC have a visible home split

moderate

Austin FC's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

11.9 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season10.2 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

Metric	Home only	Season	Baseline
Shots	11.9 shots/match	10.2 shots/match	13 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Austin FC favored in 2 of 14 directional metrics · Philadelphia Union in 7 · 5 too close

1.38 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 16/161.31 goals/match

2 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 16/161.94 goals/match

0.95 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 13/13▲1.6 xG/match

2.14 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 13/13▲1.65 xG/match

10.2 shots/matchShotsseason · 16/16▲15.4 shots/match

17.6 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 16/16▲9.38 shots/match

4 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 16/16▲4.56 shots/match

6.88 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 16/16▲3.88 shots/match

47.4%Possessionseason · 16/1645.4%

4.31 corners/matchCornersseason · 16/165.88 corners/match

6.31 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 16/16▲3.19 corners/match

2 cards/matchCardsseason · 3/43.5 cards/match

11 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 16/1615.1 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

25%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 16/1613%

81%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 16/1669%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Austin FC35

Philadelphia Union18.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Austin FC15.5

Philadelphia Union46.1

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Austin FC8.9

Philadelphia Union70

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Austin FC21.7

Philadelphia Union98.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Austin FC25

Philadelphia Union95

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 59%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Austin FC16.7

Philadelphia Union86.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Austin FC13.8

Philadelphia Union76.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

1.2 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲2.4 goals/match

2.6 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/52.8 goals/match

0.73 xG/matchExpected goals5/5▲2.2 xG/match

9 shots/matchShots5/5▲18.6 shots/match

3.8 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲6.4 shots/match

47.4%Possession5/538.8%

3.4 corners/matchCorners5/55.4 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

9 fouls/matchFouls5/513.8 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

1.5 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.7 goals/match

2.3 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲2 goals/match

0.92 xG/matchExpected goals10/10▲1.64 xG/match

10.1 shots/matchShots10/10▲16.2 shots/match

4.2 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲5.3 shots/match

48.3%Possession10/1043.2%

3.6 corners/matchCorners10/105.4 corners/match

—Cards0/1—

11.3 fouls/matchFouls10/1014.8 fouls/match

Window

Season

16 / 16 matches

1.38 goals/matchGoals scored16/161.31 goals/match

2 goals/matchGoals allowed16/161.94 goals/match

0.95 xG/matchExpected goals13/13▲1.6 xG/match

10.2 shots/matchShots16/16▲15.4 shots/match

4 shots/matchShots on target16/16▲4.56 shots/match

47.4%Possession16/1645.4%

4.31 corners/matchCorners16/165.88 corners/match

2 cards/matchCards3/43.5 cards/match

11 fouls/matchFouls16/1615.1 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

8 / 9 matches

1.5 goals/matchGoals scored8/9▲1.67 goals/match

0.88 goals/match▲Goals allowed8/92.67 goals/match

0.98 xG/matchExpected goals6/8▲1.64 xG/match

11.9 shots/matchShots8/9▲15.2 shots/match

5 shots/match▲Shots on target8/94.56 shots/match

54.1%Possession8/944.4%

5.38 corners/matchCorners8/94.78 corners/match

—Cards2/2—

10.9 fouls/matchFouls8/916.3 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

31 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/131 days

0 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/10 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited

Season samples16 / 16home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

Freshness31 daysstale at cutoff

At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
The nearest completed-match evidence is stale relative to this fixture cutoff.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 23 Aug 2026, 00:30 UTC · analysis-v4