Major League Soccer · 2026Thu, 20 Aug 2026, 00:30 UTCScheduledPre-match analysis

Minnesota United

DLLDL

vsPre-match analysis

Atlanta United

LDLLD

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Atlanta United's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Atlanta United's recent record differs from the season

weak

Atlanta United's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	0.8 goals/match	1 goals/match	1.63 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Minnesota United favored in 7 of 14 directional metrics · Atlanta United in 3 · 4 too close

1.19 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 16/161 goals/match

1.5 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 16/161.63 goals/match

1.48 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 13/131.35 xG/match

1.35 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 13/131.45 xG/match

13.4 shots/matchShotsseason · 16/1613 shots/match

12.3 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 16/16▲11.6 shots/match

4.63 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 16/164.19 shots/match

4.63 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 16/16▲4.38 shots/match

48%Possessionseason · 16/1652.7%

5.25 corners/matchCornersseason · 16/164.88 corners/match

5.25 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 16/16▲4.81 corners/match

1.25 cards/matchCardsseason · 4/42.5 cards/match

12.3 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 16/1611.6 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

25%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 16/166%

75%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 16/1656%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Minnesota United41.7

Atlanta United65

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Minnesota United38.9

Atlanta United25.6

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Minnesota United52.2

Atlanta United62.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Minnesota United61.7

Atlanta United38.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Minnesota United30

Atlanta United45.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 63%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Minnesota United63.3

Atlanta United55

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Minnesota United57.1

Atlanta United42.1

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

1 goals/match▲Goals scored5/50.8 goals/match

1.6 goals/matchGoals allowed5/51.6 goals/match

1.49 xG/matchExpected goals5/51.44 xG/match

13.8 shots/matchShots5/5▲14.8 shots/match

4.8 shots/match▲Shots on target5/54.2 shots/match

57.6%Possession5/550.2%

6 corners/matchCorners5/54.8 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11.2 fouls/matchFouls5/510.2 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

1.3 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101 goals/match

1.2 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.5 goals/match

1.57 xG/match▲Expected goals10/101.33 xG/match

14.7 shots/matchShots10/1015.1 shots/match

5.2 shots/match▲Shots on target10/104.7 shots/match

51.5%Possession10/1051%

5.8 corners/matchCorners10/105.7 corners/match

—Cards1/1—

11.9 fouls/matchFouls10/1010.5 fouls/match

Window

Season

16 / 16 matches

1.19 goals/match▲Goals scored16/161 goals/match

1.5 goals/match▲Goals allowed16/161.63 goals/match

1.48 xG/match▲Expected goals13/131.35 xG/match

13.4 shots/matchShots16/1613 shots/match

4.63 shots/match▲Shots on target16/164.19 shots/match

48%Possession16/1652.7%

5.25 corners/matchCorners16/164.88 corners/match

1.25 cards/matchCards4/42.5 cards/match

12.3 fouls/matchFouls16/1611.6 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

7 / 8 matches

0.86 goals/match▲Goals scored7/80.63 goals/match

0.71 goals/match▲Goals allowed7/81.5 goals/match

1.58 xG/match▲Expected goals6/61.36 xG/match

15.3 shots/match▲Shots7/812.6 shots/match

3.71 shots/matchShots on target7/83.75 shots/match

50.1%Possession7/850.3%

5.29 corners/matchCorners7/85.25 corners/match

—Cards1/2—

11.9 fouls/matchFouls7/812.8 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

28 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/128 days

0 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/10 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited

Season samples16 / 16home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

Freshness28 daysstale at cutoff

At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
The nearest completed-match evidence is stale relative to this fixture cutoff.

Analysis cutoff: Thu, 20 Aug 2026, 00:30 UTC · analysis-v4