Major League Soccer · 2026Wed, 19 Aug 2026, 23:30 UTCScheduledPre-match analysis

FC Cincinnati

DLDWW

vsPre-match analysis

New York City FC

WWDLW

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: FC Cincinnati's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: New York City FC's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

FC Cincinnati's recent record differs from the season

moderate

FC Cincinnati's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

3.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.5 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	3.6 goals/match	2.5 goals/match	1.63 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

New York City FC have a visible away split

moderate

New York City FC's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

8.5 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season11.2 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

Metric	Away only	Season	Baseline
Shots	8.5 shots/match	11.2 shots/match	13 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0FC Cincinnati

1Draws

0New York City FC

22 Apr 2026New York City FC — FC Cincinnati · Major League Soccer4–4

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

FC Cincinnati favored in 5 of 14 directional metrics · New York City FC in 5 · 4 too close

2.5 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 16/161.69 goals/match

2.5 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 16/16▲1.38 goals/match

1.8 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 14/131.12 xG/match

1.71 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 14/13▲1.49 xG/match

13.3 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 16/1611.2 shots/match

16.2 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 16/16▲12.1 shots/match

5.69 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 16/165 shots/match

5.69 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 16/16▲4.75 shots/match

48.7%Possessionseason · 16/1655.8%

4.44 corners/matchCornersseason · 16/163.31 corners/match

4.81 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 16/164.94 corners/match

2.86 cards/matchCardsseason · 7/42.5 cards/match

12.5 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 16/1611.8 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

13%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 16/16▲19%

88%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 16/1681%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

FC Cincinnati45

New York City FC88.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

FC Cincinnati81.1

New York City FC49.4

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

FC Cincinnati13.3

New York City FC58.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

FC Cincinnati58.3

New York City FC11.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

FC Cincinnati66.7

New York City FC49.1

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 63%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

FC Cincinnati28.3

New York City FC1.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

FC Cincinnati60.4

New York City FC33.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

3.6 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51.6 goals/match

3 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲0.8 goals/match

1.88 xG/match▲Expected goals5/51.15 xG/match

12.6 shots/match▲Shots5/57.8 shots/match

6.2 shots/match▲Shots on target5/54 shots/match

46.2%Possession5/548.8%

2.8 corners/matchCorners5/51.8 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

14.2 fouls/matchFouls5/511.8 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

3.1 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.3 goals/match

2.5 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.5 goals/match

1.99 xG/match▲Expected goals10/101.04 xG/match

13 shots/match▲Shots10/1010.3 shots/match

5.9 shots/match▲Shots on target10/104.5 shots/match

47.5%Possession10/1055.8%

3.6 corners/matchCorners10/102.9 corners/match

—Cards2/1—

12.5 fouls/matchFouls10/1010.7 fouls/match

Window

Season

16 / 16 matches

2.5 goals/match▲Goals scored16/161.69 goals/match

2.5 goals/matchGoals allowed16/16▲1.38 goals/match

1.8 xG/match▲Expected goals14/131.12 xG/match

13.3 shots/match▲Shots16/1611.2 shots/match

5.69 shots/match▲Shots on target16/165 shots/match

48.7%Possession16/1655.8%

4.44 corners/matchCorners16/163.31 corners/match

2.86 cards/matchCards7/42.5 cards/match

12.5 fouls/matchFouls16/1611.8 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

8 / 8 matches

3 goals/match▲Goals scored8/81 goals/match

2.13 goals/matchGoals allowed8/8▲1.13 goals/match

2.19 xG/match▲Expected goals7/60.96 xG/match

14.8 shots/match▲Shots8/88.5 shots/match

5.88 shots/match▲Shots on target8/83.5 shots/match

50.1%Possession8/855.1%

4.38 corners/matchCorners8/82.25 corners/match

—Cards2/33.33 cards/match

13.9 fouls/matchFouls8/813.1 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

28 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/128 days

0 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/10 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited

Season samples16 / 16home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

Freshness28 daysstale at cutoff

At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
The nearest completed-match evidence is stale relative to this fixture cutoff.

Analysis cutoff: Wed, 19 Aug 2026, 23:30 UTC · analysis-v4