PitchMath
Major League Soccer · 2026

New York Red Bulls 0–1 Nashville SC · Major League Soccer

0–1Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Nashville SC won 0–1.

Shots
1310
Shots on target
13
Expected goals
1.631.32
Possession
54%46%

Full time

What the match recorded

Nashville SC beat New York Red Bulls 1–0. Recorded in this match (New York Red Bulls – Nashville SC): shots 13–10, shots on target 1–3, expected goals 1.63–1.32, possession 54%–46%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

New York Red Bulls's recent record differs from the season

moderate

New York Red Bulls's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1 goal/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.5 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1 goal/match1.5 goals/match1.55 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for New York Red Bulls, Nashville SC.

4 days ▲Rest daysNew York Red Bulls · Nashville SC3.96 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricNew York Red BullsNashville SCBaseline
Rest days4 days3.96 days—
Matches last 14 days1 match1 match—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Nashville SC have a visible away split

moderate

Nashville SC's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

9.4 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season11.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots9.4 shots/match11.3 shots/match12.8 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots13 shots10 shotsNew York Red Bulls 13 shots, Nashville SC 10 shots
  • Shots on target1 shot3 shotsNew York Red Bulls 1 shot, Nashville SC 3 shots
  • Expected goals1.63 xG1.32 xGNew York Red Bulls 1.63 xG, Nashville SC 1.32 xG
  • Possession54%46%New York Red Bulls 54%, Nashville SC 46%
  • Corners7 corners10 cornersNew York Red Bulls 7 corners, Nashville SC 10 corners
  • Fouls4 fouls12 foulsNew York Red Bulls 4 fouls, Nashville SC 12 fouls
  • Yellow cards1 card2 cardsNew York Red Bulls 1 card, Nashville SC 2 cards
  • Passes482 passes395 passesNew York Red Bulls 482 passes, Nashville SC 395 passes
  • Pass accuracy84%81.8%New York Red Bulls 84%, Nashville SC 81.8%
  • Shots inside box11 shots6 shotsNew York Red Bulls 11 shots, Nashville SC 6 shots
  • Blocked shots5 blocks2 blocksNew York Red Bulls 5 blocks, Nashville SC 2 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves2 saves1 saveNew York Red Bulls 2 saves, Nashville SC 1 save
  • Offsides0 offsides5 offsidesNew York Red Bulls 0 offsides, Nashville SC 5 offsides

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Matthew Corcoran · Nashville SC · 41′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedHany Mukhtar · Nashville SC · 59′ · 0.02 xG · on targetJulian Hall · New York Red Bulls · 63′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMijahir Jimenez · New York Red Bulls · 73′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMatthew Dos Santos · New York Red Bulls · 16′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJorge Ruvalcaba · New York Red Bulls · 29′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedReed Baker-Whiting · Nashville SC · 56′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedMohammed Sofo · New York Red Bulls · 65′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedJulian Hall · New York Red Bulls · 78′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedHany Mukhtar · Nashville SC · 80′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedSam Surridge · Nashville SC · 81′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedElias Saad · Nashville SC · 45′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedAdri Mehmeti · New York Red Bulls · 29′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedHany Mukhtar · Nashville SC · 47′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedJorge Ruvalcaba · New York Red Bulls · 69′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedMatthew Corcoran · Nashville SC · 60′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedAdri Mehmeti · New York Red Bulls · 52′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blockedJulián Bazán · New York Red Bulls · 34′ · 0.17 xG · off target or blockedJorge Ruvalcaba · New York Red Bulls · 53′ · 0.18 xG · off target or blockedJulian Hall · New York Red Bulls · 10′ · 0.36 xG · off target or blockedEmil Forsberg · New York Red Bulls · 33′ · 0.38 xG · on targetMaxwell Woledzi · Nashville SC · 90′ · 0.44 xG · goalSam Surridge · Nashville SC · 39′ · 0.46 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

New York Red Bulls: 13 shots, 1 on target, 1.63 xG. Nashville SC: 10 shots, 3 on target, 1.29 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Maxwell Woledzi · Nashville SC · 90′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: New York Red Bulls 1.63 xG · Nashville SC 1.29 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2New York Red Bulls
2Draws
1Nashville SC
Nashville SC — New York Red Bulls · Major League Soccer2–1
New York Red Bulls — Nashville SC · Major League Soccer2–0
New York Red Bulls — Nashville SC · Major League Soccer0–0
Nashville SC — New York Red Bulls · Major League Soccer0–0
Nashville SC — New York Red Bulls · Major League Soccer0–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: New York Red Bulls favored in 3 of 13 directional metrics · Nashville SC in 8 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

New York Red Bulls20 matchesNashville SC20 matches
1.5 goals/matchGoals scored20/20▲ 2 goals/match
2.1 goals/matchGoals allowed20/20▲ 0.75 goals/match
1.71 xG/match ▲Expected goals17/171.26 xG/match
13.9 shots/match ▲Shots20/2011.3 shots/match
4.9 shots/matchShots on target20/204.7 shots/match
53.3%Possession20/20● 53.9%
6.1 corners/match ●Corners20/205.05 corners/match
2.5 cards/matchCards6/51.8 cards/match
11.9 fouls/matchFouls20/2011.7 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples20 / 20home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Thu, 20 Aug 2026, 03:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Major League Soccer

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsNew York Red BullsNashville SC
CompetitionMajor League Soccer
Head-to-headNew York Red Bulls — Nashville SC
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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