Major League Soccer · 2026Wed, 19 Aug 2026, 23:30 UTCScheduledPre-match analysis

New York Red Bulls

WWDWL

vsPre-match analysis

Nashville SC

WWWWW

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: New York Red Bulls's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Nashville SC's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

New York Red Bulls's recent record differs from the season

weak

New York Red Bulls's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.63 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	2 goals/match	1.63 goals/match	1.63 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Nashville SC have a visible away split

moderate

Nashville SC's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

9.57 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season11.3 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

Metric	Away only	Season	Baseline
Shots	9.57 shots/match	11.3 shots/match	13 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

New York Red Bulls favored in 2 of 14 directional metrics · Nashville SC in 7 · 5 too close

1.63 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 16/16▲2.06 goals/match

2.19 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 16/16▲0.69 goals/match

1.5 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 13/131.18 xG/match

2.1 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 13/13▲1.18 xG/match

13.3 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 16/1611.3 shots/match

13.6 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 16/16▲10.2 shots/match

5 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 16/164.94 shots/match

5.88 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 16/16▲3.31 shots/match

52.9%Possessionseason · 16/1654.6%

6.06 corners/matchCornersseason · 16/164.44 corners/match

4.81 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 16/16▲4 corners/match

1.8 cards/matchCardsseason · 5/42 cards/match

12.3 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 16/1611.6 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

6%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 16/16▲50%

81%Scoring frequencyseason · 16/1681%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

New York Red Bulls75

Nashville SC78.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

New York Red Bulls59.4

Nashville SC57.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

New York Red Bulls16.1

Nashville SC93.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

New York Red Bulls41.7

Nashville SC18.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

New York Red Bulls35.9

Nashville SC33.4

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 63%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

New York Red Bulls95

Nashville SC28.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

New York Red Bulls69.6

Nashville SC39.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

2 goals/matchGoals scored5/52 goals/match

1.6 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲0.6 goals/match

1.65 xG/match▲Expected goals5/50.83 xG/match

10.6 shots/match▲Shots5/58.8 shots/match

4.6 shots/match▲Shots on target5/53.6 shots/match

42.4%Possession5/551.4%

4.4 corners/matchCorners5/54.6 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

13.4 fouls/matchFouls5/510.4 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

1.7 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲2 goals/match

2.2 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲0.8 goals/match

1.3 xG/match▲Expected goals10/101.03 xG/match

10.7 shots/matchShots10/1010.8 shots/match

3.7 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲4.8 shots/match

48.7%Possession10/1054.7%

5 corners/matchCorners10/104.9 corners/match

—Cards0/1—

12.8 fouls/matchFouls10/1010.4 fouls/match

Window

Season

16 / 16 matches

1.63 goals/matchGoals scored16/16▲2.06 goals/match

2.19 goals/matchGoals allowed16/16▲0.69 goals/match

1.5 xG/match▲Expected goals13/131.18 xG/match

13.3 shots/match▲Shots16/1611.3 shots/match

5 shots/matchShots on target16/164.94 shots/match

52.9%Possession16/1654.6%

6.06 corners/matchCorners16/164.44 corners/match

1.8 cards/matchCards5/42 cards/match

12.3 fouls/matchFouls16/1611.6 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

7 / 7 matches

1.86 goals/match▲Goals scored7/71.14 goals/match

2 goals/matchGoals allowed7/7▲0.29 goals/match

1.77 xG/match▲Expected goals5/60.81 xG/match

12.7 shots/match▲Shots7/79.57 shots/match

4.29 shots/match▲Shots on target7/74 shots/match

52.7%Possession7/751%

6 corners/matchCorners7/74 corners/match

1.67 cards/matchCards3/1—

12.3 fouls/matchFouls7/711.9 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

28 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/128 days

0 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/10 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited

Season samples16 / 16home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

Freshness28 daysstale at cutoff

At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
The nearest completed-match evidence is stale relative to this fixture cutoff.

Analysis cutoff: Wed, 19 Aug 2026, 23:30 UTC · analysis-v4