Major League Soccer · 2026Wed, 19 Aug 2026, 23:30 UTCScheduledPre-match analysis

Toronto FC

LLLDD

vsPre-match analysis

Charlotte FC

DLWWD

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Toronto FC's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Charlotte FC's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Toronto FC's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Toronto FC's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.38 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	0.8 goals/match	1.38 goals/match	1.63 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Charlotte FC have a visible away split

moderate

Charlotte FC's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

7.83 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season11.5 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

Metric	Away only	Season	Baseline
Shots	7.83 shots/match	11.5 shots/match	13 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Toronto FC

0Draws

1Charlotte FC

16 May 2026Charlotte — Toronto FC · Major League Soccer3–1

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Toronto FC favored in 5 of 14 directional metrics · Charlotte FC in 5 · 4 too close

1.38 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 16/16▲1.63 goals/match

1.81 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 16/16▲1.56 goals/match

1.14 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 14/13▲1.61 xG/match

1.14 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 14/131.22 xG/match

11.5 shots/matchShotsseason · 16/1611.5 shots/match

11.6 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 16/1613.5 shots/match

4.06 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 16/16▲4.88 shots/match

4.44 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 16/165.38 shots/match

47.1%Possessionseason · 16/1647.3%

5.56 corners/matchCornersseason · 16/164.75 corners/match

5.94 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 16/16▲4.25 corners/match

2 cards/matchCardsseason · 4/52.4 cards/match

12.4 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 16/169.63 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

19%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 16/1613%

81%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 16/1675%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Toronto FC28.3

Charlotte FC31.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Toronto FC25

Charlotte FC47.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Toronto FC56.1

Charlotte FC33.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Toronto FC31.7

Charlotte FC28.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Toronto FC43.4

Charlotte FC25.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 63%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Toronto FC78.3

Charlotte FC48.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Toronto FC45.4

Charlotte FC35.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

0.8 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.6 goals/match

1.8 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1.2 goals/match

1.01 xG/matchExpected goals5/5▲1.82 xG/match

11.2 shots/matchShots5/5▲14 shots/match

2.6 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲5.2 shots/match

45.6%Possession5/546%

4.6 corners/matchCorners5/56.2 corners/match

—Cards0/1—

11 fouls/matchFouls5/58.4 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

1.3 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.4 goals/match

1.9 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.8 goals/match

1.17 xG/matchExpected goals10/10▲1.6 xG/match

11.5 shots/matchShots10/1011.3 shots/match

3.4 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲4.3 shots/match

48.6%Possession10/1045%

5.2 corners/matchCorners10/104.6 corners/match

—Cards1/1—

12.6 fouls/matchFouls10/109.3 fouls/match

Window

Season

16 / 16 matches

1.38 goals/matchGoals scored16/16▲1.63 goals/match

1.81 goals/matchGoals allowed16/16▲1.56 goals/match

1.14 xG/matchExpected goals14/13▲1.61 xG/match

11.5 shots/matchShots16/1611.5 shots/match

4.06 shots/matchShots on target16/16▲4.88 shots/match

47.1%Possession16/1647.3%

5.56 corners/matchCorners16/164.75 corners/match

2 cards/matchCards4/52.4 cards/match

12.4 fouls/matchFouls16/169.63 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

9 / 6 matches

1.89 goals/match▲Goals scored9/61 goals/match

2 goals/match▲Goals allowed9/62.33 goals/match

1.25 xG/match▲Expected goals9/41.14 xG/match

12.6 shots/match▲Shots9/67.83 shots/match

5 shots/match▲Shots on target9/63 shots/match

47.6%Possession9/643.3%

6.11 corners/matchCorners9/63 corners/match

—Cards2/2—

12.8 fouls/matchFouls9/610.8 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

28 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/128 days

0 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/10 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited

Season samples16 / 16home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

Freshness28 daysstale at cutoff

At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
The nearest completed-match evidence is stale relative to this fixture cutoff.

Analysis cutoff: Wed, 19 Aug 2026, 23:30 UTC · analysis-v4