PitchMath
Major League Soccer · 2026

Inter Miami CF 1–2 Toronto FC · Major League Soccer

1–2Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Toronto FC won 1–2.

Shots
107
Shots on target
33
Expected goals
1.830.51
Possession
62%38%

Full time

What the match recorded

Toronto FC beat Inter Miami CF 2–1. Recorded in this match (Inter Miami CF – Toronto FC): shots 10–7, shots on target 3–3, expected goals 1.83–0.51, possession 62%–38%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Inter Miami CF's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Inter Miami CF's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.4 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.33 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.4 goals/match2.33 goals/match1.54 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

moderate

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Inter Miami CF, Toronto FC.

3 days ▲Rest daysInter Miami CF · Toronto FC3 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricInter Miami CFToronto FCBaseline
Rest days3 days3 days—
Matches last 14 days2 matches2 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Inter Miami CF have a visible home split

moderate

Inter Miami CF's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

17.8 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season15.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots17.8 shots/match15.3 shots/match12.8 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots10 shots7 shotsInter Miami CF 10 shots, Toronto FC 7 shots
  • Shots on target3 shots3 shotsInter Miami CF 3 shots, Toronto FC 3 shots
  • Expected goals1.83 xG0.51 xGInter Miami CF 1.83 xG, Toronto FC 0.51 xG
  • Possession62%38%Inter Miami CF 62%, Toronto FC 38%
  • Corners3 corners2 cornersInter Miami CF 3 corners, Toronto FC 2 corners
  • Fouls15 fouls8 foulsInter Miami CF 15 fouls, Toronto FC 8 fouls
  • Yellow cards2 cards1 cardInter Miami CF 2 cards, Toronto FC 1 card

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Lovens Delinois · Inter Miami CF · 88′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedJosh Sargent · Toronto FC · 43′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedLionel Messi · Inter Miami CF · 45′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedDavid Ayala · Inter Miami CF · 90′ · 0.03 xG · on targetDániel Sallói · Toronto FC · 39′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedCasemiro · Inter Miami CF · 31′ · 0.05 xG · on targetĐorđe Mihailović · Toronto FC · 56′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedBenjamin Kuscevic · Toronto FC · 9′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedJosh Sargent · Toronto FC · 59′ · 0.06 xG · goalGermán Berterame · Inter Miami CF · 15′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedGermán Berterame · Inter Miami CF · 49′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedDerrick Etienne · Toronto FC · 62′ · 0.12 xG · goalGermán Berterame · Inter Miami CF · 36′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedĐorđe Mihailović · Toronto FC · 81′ · 0.16 xG · on targetLuis Suárez · Inter Miami CF · 19′ · 0.38 xG · off target or blockedIan Fray · Inter Miami CF · 64′ · 0.46 xG · off target or blockedLionel Messi · Inter Miami CF · 82′ · 0.48 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Inter Miami CF: 10 shots, 3 on target, 1.78 xG. Toronto FC: 7 shots, 3 on target, 0.51 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Lionel Messi · Inter Miami CF · 82′Josh Sargent · Toronto FC · 59′Derrick Etienne · Toronto FC · 62′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Inter Miami CF 1.78 xG · Toronto FC 0.51 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

3Inter Miami CF
2Draws
0Toronto FC
Toronto FC — Inter Miami CF · Major League Soccer2–4
Toronto FC — Inter Miami CF · Major League Soccer1–1
Inter Miami CF — Toronto FC · Major League Soccer1–1
Toronto FC — Inter Miami CF · Major League Soccer0–1
Inter Miami CF — Toronto FC · Major League Soccer3–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Inter Miami CF favored in 7 of 11 directional metrics · Toronto FC in 2 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Inter Miami CF21 matchesToronto FC21 matches
2.33 goals/match ▲Goals scored21/211.48 goals/match
1.9 goals/matchGoals allowed21/21▲ 1.76 goals/match
2.2 xG/match ▲Expected goals18/191.12 xG/match
15.3 shots/match ▲Shots21/2111.2 shots/match
6 shots/match ▲Shots on target21/214.14 shots/match
57.1% ●Possession21/2146.4%
5.48 corners/match ●Corners21/214.95 corners/match
3 cards/matchCards5/62 cards/match
12.7 fouls/matchFouls21/2111.7 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples21 / 21home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 23 Aug 2026, 03:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Major League Soccer

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsInter Miami CFToronto FC
CompetitionMajor League Soccer
Head-to-headInter Miami CF — Toronto FC
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

Make a graphic from this match

Creator Studio builds a branded post from this match's recorded data, with its evidence grade and source cutoff carried into the export.

Turn this match into a graphicReady-made from PitchMath data · No sign-up required