Major League Soccer · 2026Sat, 15 Aug 2026, 23:30 UTCScheduledPre-match analysis

Atlanta United

LDLLD

vsPre-match analysis

New York Red Bulls

WWDWL

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: New York Red Bulls's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

New York Red Bulls's recent record differs from the season

weak

New York Red Bulls's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.63 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	2 goals/match	1.63 goals/match	1.63 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Atlanta United favored in 4 of 14 directional metrics · New York Red Bulls in 4 · 6 too close

1 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 16/16▲1.63 goals/match

1.63 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 16/162.19 goals/match

1.35 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 13/13▲1.5 xG/match

1.45 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 13/132.1 xG/match

13 shots/matchShotsseason · 16/1613.3 shots/match

11.6 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 16/1613.6 shots/match

4.19 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 16/16▲5 shots/match

4.38 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 16/165.88 shots/match

52.7%Possessionseason · 16/1652.9%

4.88 corners/matchCornersseason · 16/166.06 corners/match

4.81 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 16/164.81 corners/match

2.5 cards/matchCardsseason · 4/51.8 cards/match

11.6 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 16/1612.3 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

6%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 16/166%

56%Scoring frequencyseason · 16/16▲81%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Atlanta United65

New York Red Bulls75

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Atlanta United25.6

New York Red Bulls59.4

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Atlanta United62.2

New York Red Bulls16.1

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Atlanta United38.3

New York Red Bulls41.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Atlanta United45.8

New York Red Bulls35.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 63%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Atlanta United55

New York Red Bulls95

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Atlanta United42.1

New York Red Bulls69.6

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

0.8 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲2 goals/match

1.6 goals/matchGoals allowed5/51.6 goals/match

1.44 xG/matchExpected goals5/5▲1.65 xG/match

14.8 shots/match▲Shots5/510.6 shots/match

4.2 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲4.6 shots/match

50.2%Possession5/542.4%

4.8 corners/matchCorners5/54.4 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10.2 fouls/matchFouls5/513.4 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

1 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.7 goals/match

1.5 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/102.2 goals/match

1.33 xG/matchExpected goals10/101.3 xG/match

15.1 shots/match▲Shots10/1010.7 shots/match

4.7 shots/match▲Shots on target10/103.7 shots/match

51%Possession10/1048.7%

5.7 corners/matchCorners10/105 corners/match

—Cards1/0—

10.5 fouls/matchFouls10/1012.8 fouls/match

Window

Season

16 / 16 matches

1 goals/matchGoals scored16/16▲1.63 goals/match

1.63 goals/match▲Goals allowed16/162.19 goals/match

1.35 xG/matchExpected goals13/13▲1.5 xG/match

13 shots/matchShots16/1613.3 shots/match

4.19 shots/matchShots on target16/16▲5 shots/match

52.7%Possession16/1652.9%

4.88 corners/matchCorners16/166.06 corners/match

2.5 cards/matchCards4/51.8 cards/match

11.6 fouls/matchFouls16/1612.3 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

8 / 9 matches

1.38 goals/matchGoals scored8/91.44 goals/match

1.75 goals/match▲Goals allowed8/92.33 goals/match

1.35 xG/matchExpected goals7/81.32 xG/match

13.4 shots/matchShots8/913.7 shots/match

4.63 shots/matchShots on target8/9▲5.56 shots/match

55.1%Possession8/953%

4.5 corners/matchCorners8/96.11 corners/match

—Cards2/2—

10.4 fouls/matchFouls8/912.3 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

24 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/124 days

0 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/10 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited

Season samples16 / 16home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

Freshness24 daysstale at cutoff

At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
The nearest completed-match evidence is stale relative to this fixture cutoff.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 15 Aug 2026, 23:30 UTC · analysis-v4