Major League Soccer · 2026Sat, 15 Aug 2026, 23:30 UTCScheduledPre-match analysis

Orlando City SC

LWDLW

vsPre-match analysis

FC Cincinnati

DLDWW

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: FC Cincinnati's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: FC Cincinnati's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

FC Cincinnati's recent record differs from the season

moderate

FC Cincinnati's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

3.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.5 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	3.6 goals/match	2.5 goals/match	1.63 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

FC Cincinnati show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

FC Cincinnati's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

11.1 shots/match▲ShotsOrlando City SC · FC Cincinnati13.3 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Orlando City SC	FC Cincinnati	Baseline
Shots	11.1 shots/match	13.3 shots/match	13 shots/match
Shots against	18.6 shots/match	16.2 shots/match	12.3 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Orlando City SC

0Draws

1FC Cincinnati

23 May 2026FC Cincinnati — Orlando City SC · Major League Soccer6–2

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Orlando City SC favored in 0 of 14 directional metrics · FC Cincinnati in 11 · 3 too close

1.69 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 16/16▲2.5 goals/match

2.75 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 16/16▲2.5 goals/match

1.29 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 13/14▲1.8 xG/match

1.88 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 13/14▲1.71 xG/match

11.1 shots/matchShotsseason · 16/16▲13.3 shots/match

18.6 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 16/16▲16.2 shots/match

4.63 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 16/16▲5.69 shots/match

7.25 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 16/16▲5.69 shots/match

45.3%Possessionseason · 16/1648.7%

3.69 corners/matchCornersseason · 16/164.44 corners/match

7.31 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 16/16▲4.81 corners/match

3 cards/matchCardsseason · 3/72.86 cards/match

10.6 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 16/1612.5 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

6%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 16/16▲13%

69%Scoring frequencyseason · 16/16▲88%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Orlando City SC15

FC Cincinnati45

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Orlando City SC39.4

FC Cincinnati81.1

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Orlando City SC1.7

FC Cincinnati13.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Orlando City SC35

FC Cincinnati58.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Orlando City SC51.7

FC Cincinnati66.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 59%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Orlando City SC5

FC Cincinnati28.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Orlando City SC21.2

FC Cincinnati60.4

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

2.2 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲3.6 goals/match

2.4 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/53 goals/match

1.55 xG/matchExpected goals5/5▲1.88 xG/match

11.2 shots/matchShots5/5▲12.6 shots/match

5 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲6.2 shots/match

47.8%Possession5/546.2%

3.6 corners/matchCorners5/52.8 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10.8 fouls/matchFouls5/514.2 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

2.2 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲3.1 goals/match

2.1 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/102.5 goals/match

1.31 xG/matchExpected goals10/10▲1.99 xG/match

11 shots/matchShots10/10▲13 shots/match

4.9 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲5.9 shots/match

47.3%Possession10/1047.5%

3.5 corners/matchCorners10/103.6 corners/match

—Cards0/2—

11 fouls/matchFouls10/1012.5 fouls/match

Window

Season

16 / 16 matches

1.69 goals/matchGoals scored16/16▲2.5 goals/match

2.75 goals/matchGoals allowed16/16▲2.5 goals/match

1.29 xG/matchExpected goals13/14▲1.8 xG/match

11.1 shots/matchShots16/16▲13.3 shots/match

4.63 shots/matchShots on target16/16▲5.69 shots/match

45.3%Possession16/1648.7%

3.69 corners/matchCorners16/164.44 corners/match

3 cards/matchCards3/72.86 cards/match

10.6 fouls/matchFouls16/1612.5 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

7 / 8 matches

2 goals/matchGoals scored7/82 goals/match

1.86 goals/match▲Goals allowed7/82.88 goals/match

1.68 xG/match▲Expected goals5/71.41 xG/match

12.7 shots/match▲Shots7/811.9 shots/match

5 shots/matchShots on target7/8▲5.5 shots/match

46.4%Possession7/847.3%

3 corners/matchCorners7/84.5 corners/match

—Cards2/52.8 cards/match

11 fouls/matchFouls7/811.1 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

23.9 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/124 days

0 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/10 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited

Season samples16 / 16home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

Freshness24 daysstale at cutoff

At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
The nearest completed-match evidence is stale relative to this fixture cutoff.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 15 Aug 2026, 23:30 UTC · analysis-v4