PitchMath
Major League Soccer · 2026Subaru Park
3–2Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Philadelphia Union won 3–2.

Shots
304
Shots on target
62
Expected goals
2.790.53
Possession
71%29%

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots30 shots4 shotsPhiladelphia Union 30 shots, Atlanta United 4 shots
  • Shots on target6 shots2 shotsPhiladelphia Union 6 shots, Atlanta United 2 shots
  • Expected goals2.79 xG0.53 xGPhiladelphia Union 2.79 xG, Atlanta United 0.53 xG
  • Possession71%29%Philadelphia Union 71%, Atlanta United 29%
  • Corners12 corners2 cornersPhiladelphia Union 12 corners, Atlanta United 2 corners
  • Fouls15 fouls5 foulsPhiladelphia Union 15 fouls, Atlanta United 5 fouls
  • Yellow cards3 cards2 cardsPhiladelphia Union 3 cards, Atlanta United 2 cards
  • Passes523 passes227 passesPhiladelphia Union 523 passes, Atlanta United 227 passes
  • Pass accuracy84.3%63.4%Philadelphia Union 84.3%, Atlanta United 63.4%
  • Shots inside box25 shots3 shotsPhiladelphia Union 25 shots, Atlanta United 3 shots
  • Blocked shots8 blocks0 blocksPhiladelphia Union 8 blocks, Atlanta United 0 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves0 saves3 savesPhiladelphia Union 0 saves, Atlanta United 3 saves
  • Offsides3 offsides2 offsidesPhiladelphia Union 3 offsides, Atlanta United 2 offsides

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Fafà Picault · Atlanta United · 9′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedFrankie Westfield · Philadelphia Union · 49′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedNeil Pierre · Philadelphia Union · 63′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedCavan Sullivan · Philadelphia Union · 39′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedNeil Pierre · Philadelphia Union · 43′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedNathan Harriel · Philadelphia Union · 43′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedCavan Sullivan · Philadelphia Union · 45′ · 0.02 xG · on targetFrankie Westfield · Philadelphia Union · 45′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedNeil Pierre · Philadelphia Union · 47′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedFrankie Westfield · Philadelphia Union · 50′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedTristan Muyumba · Atlanta United · 66′ · 0.02 xG · goalMilan Iloski · Philadelphia Union · 22′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJesus Bueno · Philadelphia Union · 76′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedCavan Sullivan · Philadelphia Union · 82′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedNeil Pierre · Philadelphia Union · 23′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedBruno Damiani · Philadelphia Union · 32′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedCavan Sullivan · Philadelphia Union · 81′ · 0.05 xG · on targetMilan Iloski · Philadelphia Union · 90′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedJovan Lukić · Philadelphia Union · 42′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedDanley Jean Jacques · Philadelphia Union · 70′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedQuinn Sullivan · Philadelphia Union · 85′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedEzekiel Alladoh · Philadelphia Union · 90′ · 0.08 xG · goalFrankie Westfield · Philadelphia Union · 45′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedNeil Pierre · Philadelphia Union · 90′ · 0.09 xG · goalMilan Iloski · Philadelphia Union · 89′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedMilan Iloski · Philadelphia Union · 90′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedMilan Iloski · Philadelphia Union · 82′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedBruno Damiani · Philadelphia Union · 43′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blockedMilan Iloski · Philadelphia Union · 73′ · 0.17 xG · goalStian Gregersen · Atlanta United · 79′ · 0.18 xG · off target or blockedNeil Pierre · Philadelphia Union · 90′ · 0.21 xG · off target or blockedMiguel Almirón · Atlanta United · 30′ · 0.32 xG · goalMilan Iloski · Philadelphia Union · 18′ · 0.38 xG · on targetDanley Jean Jacques · Philadelphia Union · 59′ · 0.42 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Philadelphia Union: 30 shots, 6 on target, 2.60 xG. Atlanta United: 4 shots, 2 on target, 0.53 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.530′HT90′Milan Iloski · Philadelphia Union · 73′Neil Pierre · Philadelphia Union · 90′Ezekiel Alladoh · Philadelphia Union · 90′Miguel Almirón · Atlanta United · 30′Tristan Muyumba · Atlanta United · 66′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Philadelphia Union 2.60 xG · Atlanta United 0.53 xG.

Full time

What the match recorded

Philadelphia Union beat Atlanta United 3–2. Recorded in this match (Philadelphia Union – Atlanta United): shots 30–4, shots on target 6–2, expected goals 2.79–0.53, possession 71%–29%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Philadelphia Union's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Philadelphia Union's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.4 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.39 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.4 goals/match1.39 goals/match1.61 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Atlanta United show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Atlanta United's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

16.2 shots/match ▲ShotsPhiladelphia Union · Atlanta United12.7 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricPhiladelphia UnionAtlanta UnitedBaseline
Shots16.2 shots/match12.7 shots/match12.9 shots/match
Shots against8.94 shots/match12.6 shots/match12.7 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2Philadelphia Union
2Draws
1Atlanta United
Atlanta United — Philadelphia Union · Major League Soccer3–1
Atlanta United — Philadelphia Union · Major League Soccer0–1
Philadelphia Union — Atlanta United · Major League Soccer3–0
Philadelphia Union — Atlanta United · Major League Soccer1–1
Atlanta United — Philadelphia Union · Major League Soccer2–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Philadelphia Union favored in 11 of 13 directional metrics · Atlanta United in 1 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Philadelphia Union18 matchesAtlanta United18 matches
1.39 goals/match ▲Goals scored18/181.06 goals/match
1.83 goals/matchGoals allowed18/181.83 goals/match
1.66 xG/match ▲Expected goals15/151.31 xG/match
16.2 shots/match ▲Shots18/1812.7 shots/match
4.67 shots/match ▲Shots on target18/184.17 shots/match
46.8%Possession18/18● 51.4%
6.22 corners/match ●Corners18/184.78 corners/match
3.4 cards/matchCards5/62.67 cards/match
14.8 fouls/matchFouls18/1811.4 fouls/match

Style profile

Style profile

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Philadelphia Union25.0
Atlanta United61.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Philadelphia Union59.5
Atlanta United22.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Philadelphia Union70.6
Atlanta United45.0
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Philadelphia Union98.3
Atlanta United35.0
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Philadelphia Union95.0
Atlanta United51.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 64%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Philadelphia Union91.7
Atlanta United43.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Philadelphia Union83.3
Atlanta United36.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

  • Rest before fixture · Both teams: 7 days
  • Matches in previous 14 days · Both teams: 2 matches

Philadelphia Union / Atlanta United

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples18 / 18home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 2 Aug 2026, 03:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Major League Soccer

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsPhiladelphia UnionAtlanta United
CompetitionMajor League Soccer
Head-to-headPhiladelphia Union — Atlanta United
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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