Major League Soccer · 2026Sat, 1 Aug 2026, 23:30 UTCScheduledSports Illustrated StadiumPre-match analysis

New York Red Bulls

WWDWL

vsPre-match analysis

Orlando City SC

LWDLW

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Orlando City SC's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: New York Red Bulls's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: Lineup availability and tactical choices are not in the retained data.

Orlando City SC's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Orlando City SC's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.69 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	2.2 goals/match	1.69 goals/match	1.63 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

New York Red Bulls show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

New York Red Bulls's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

13.3 shots/match▲ShotsNew York Red Bulls · Orlando City SC11.1 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	New York Red Bulls	Orlando City SC	Baseline
Shots	13.3 shots/match	11.1 shots/match	13 shots/match
Shots against	13.6 shots/match	18.6 shots/match	12.3 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1New York Red Bulls

0Draws

0Orlando City SC

22 Feb 2026Orlando City SC — New York Red Bulls · Major League Soccer1–2

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

New York Red Bulls favored in 8 of 14 directional metrics · Orlando City SC in 1 · 5 too close

1.63 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 16/161.69 goals/match

2.19 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 16/162.75 goals/match

1.5 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 13/131.29 xG/match

2.1 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 13/13▲1.88 xG/match

13.3 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 16/1611.1 shots/match

13.6 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 16/1618.6 shots/match

5 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 16/164.63 shots/match

5.88 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 16/167.25 shots/match

52.9%Possessionseason · 16/1645.3%

6.06 corners/matchCornersseason · 16/163.69 corners/match

4.81 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 16/167.31 corners/match

1.8 cards/matchCardsseason · 5/33 cards/match

12.3 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 16/1610.6 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

6%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 16/166%

81%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 16/1669%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

New York Red Bulls75

Orlando City SC15

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

New York Red Bulls60

Orlando City SC39.4

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

New York Red Bulls16.1

Orlando City SC1.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

New York Red Bulls41.7

Orlando City SC35

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

New York Red Bulls35.9

Orlando City SC51.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 59%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

New York Red Bulls95

Orlando City SC5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

New York Red Bulls70

Orlando City SC21.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

2 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲2.2 goals/match

1.6 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/52.4 goals/match

1.65 xG/match▲Expected goals5/51.55 xG/match

10.6 shots/matchShots5/5▲11.2 shots/match

4.6 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲5 shots/match

42.4%Possession5/547.8%

4.4 corners/matchCorners5/53.6 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

13.4 fouls/matchFouls5/510.8 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

1.7 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲2.2 goals/match

2.2 goals/matchGoals allowed10/102.1 goals/match

1.3 xG/matchExpected goals10/101.31 xG/match

10.7 shots/matchShots10/1011 shots/match

3.7 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲4.9 shots/match

48.7%Possession10/1047.3%

5 corners/matchCorners10/103.5 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

12.8 fouls/matchFouls10/1011 fouls/match

Window

Season

16 / 16 matches

1.63 goals/matchGoals scored16/161.69 goals/match

2.19 goals/match▲Goals allowed16/162.75 goals/match

1.5 xG/match▲Expected goals13/131.29 xG/match

13.3 shots/match▲Shots16/1611.1 shots/match

5 shots/match▲Shots on target16/164.63 shots/match

52.9%Possession16/1645.3%

6.06 corners/matchCorners16/163.69 corners/match

1.8 cards/matchCards5/33 cards/match

12.3 fouls/matchFouls16/1610.6 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

7 / 9 matches

1.86 goals/match▲Goals scored7/91.44 goals/match

2 goals/match▲Goals allowed7/93.44 goals/match

1.77 xG/match▲Expected goals5/81.04 xG/match

12.7 shots/match▲Shots7/99.78 shots/match

4.29 shots/matchShots on target7/94.33 shots/match

52.7%Possession7/944.3%

6 corners/matchCorners7/94.22 corners/match

1.67 cards/matchCards3/1—

12.3 fouls/matchFouls7/910.3 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

10 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/19.88 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready

Season samples16 / 16home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

Freshness10 daysfrom nearest prior match

Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 1 Aug 2026, 23:30 UTC · analysis-v4

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What the record shows

Orlando City SC's recent record differs from the season

New York Red Bulls show a distinct attacking-volume record

Head-to-head

Values, percentiles and samples

How the teams compare

Possession control

Attacking volume

Defensive resistance

Directness proxy

Physicality

Set-piece relevance

Tempo and pressure proxy

Season, last 10 and last 5

Last 5

Last 10

Season

Home and away samples

Home team at home / away team away

Rest and recent workload

How much supports this analysis

Known unknowns

Related matches

Make a graphic from this match