PitchMath
Major League Soccer · 2026Yankee Stadium

New York City FC 1–1 Toronto FC · Major League Soccer

1–1Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

New York City FC and Toronto FC drew 1–1.

Shots
1613
Shots on target
55
Expected goals
2.211.16
Possession
49%51%

Full time

What the match recorded

New York City FC and Toronto FC drew 1–1. Recorded in this match (New York City FC – Toronto FC): shots 16–13, shots on target 5–5, expected goals 2.21–1.16, possession 49%–51%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Toronto FC's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Toronto FC's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.6 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.33 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.6 goals/match1.33 goals/match1.58 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

New York City FC have a visible home split

moderate

New York City FC's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

13.7 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season11.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots13.7 shots/match11.4 shots/match13 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots16 shots13 shotsNew York City FC 16 shots, Toronto FC 13 shots
  • Shots on target5 shots5 shotsNew York City FC 5 shots, Toronto FC 5 shots
  • Expected goals2.21 xG1.16 xGNew York City FC 2.21 xG, Toronto FC 1.16 xG
  • Possession49%51%New York City FC 49%, Toronto FC 51%
  • Corners3 corners2 cornersNew York City FC 3 corners, Toronto FC 2 corners
  • Fouls11 fouls12 foulsNew York City FC 11 fouls, Toronto FC 12 fouls
  • Yellow cards2 cards4 cardsNew York City FC 2 cards, Toronto FC 4 cards
  • Passes365 passes375 passesNew York City FC 365 passes, Toronto FC 375 passes
  • Pass accuracy81.9%76.8%New York City FC 81.9%, Toronto FC 76.8%
  • Shots inside box13 shots8 shotsNew York City FC 13 shots, Toronto FC 8 shots
  • Blocked shots4 blocks3 blocksNew York City FC 4 blocks, Toronto FC 3 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves4 saves4 savesNew York City FC 4 saves, Toronto FC 4 saves
  • Offsides2 offsides2 offsidesNew York City FC 2 offsides, Toronto FC 2 offsides

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Alonso Coello · Toronto FC · 88′ · 0.00 xG · off target or blockedDániel Sallói · Toronto FC · 90′ · 0.01 xG · on targetJackson Gilman · Toronto FC · 90′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedTheo Corbeanu · Toronto FC · 39′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAgustin Ojeda · New York City FC · 54′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJonathan Shore · New York City FC · 58′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedRichie Laryea · Toronto FC · 80′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAndrés Perea · New York City FC · 83′ · 0.02 xG · on targetDániel Sallói · Toronto FC · 13′ · 0.03 xG · on targetJonathan Shore · New York City FC · 22′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedDániel Sallói · Toronto FC · 45′ · 0.03 xG · on targetRichie Laryea · Toronto FC · 84′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAndrés Perea · New York City FC · 80′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedDániel Sallói · Toronto FC · 34′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedJosh Sargent · Toronto FC · 45′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedTalles Magno · New York City FC · 53′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedNicolás Fernández · New York City FC · 69′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedJames Sands · New York City FC · 57′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedMitja Ilenič · New York City FC · 90′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedDániel Sallói · Toronto FC · 67′ · 0.08 xG · on targetAndrés Perea · New York City FC · 54′ · 0.09 xG · on targetJonathan Osorio · Toronto FC · 5′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedTalles Magno · New York City FC · 16′ · 0.12 xG · on targetHannes Wolf · New York City FC · 90′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedTalles Magno · New York City FC · 54′ · 0.18 xG · on targetBénie Traoré · New York City FC · 47′ · 0.19 xG · off target or blockedTalles Magno · New York City FC · 54′ · 0.28 xG · off target or blockedĐorđe Mihailović · Toronto FC · 45′ · 0.57 xG · goalNicolás Fernández · New York City FC · 9′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

New York City FC: 16 shots, 5 on target, 2.19 xG. Toronto FC: 13 shots, 5 on target, 1.00 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′Nicolás Fernández · New York City FC · 9′Đorđe Mihailović · Toronto FC · 45′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: New York City FC 2.19 xG · Toronto FC 1.00 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

5New York City FC
0Draws
0Toronto FC
New York City FC — Toronto FC · Major League Soccer3–1
Toronto FC — New York City FC · Major League Soccer0–1
Toronto FC — New York City FC · Major League Soccer2–3
New York City FC — Toronto FC · Major League Soccer2–1
New York City FC — Toronto FC · Major League Soccer3–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: New York City FC favored in 6 of 13 directional metrics · Toronto FC in 1 · 6 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

New York City FC18 matchesToronto FC18 matches
1.72 goals/match ▲Goals scored18/181.33 goals/match
1.33 goals/match ▲Goals allowed18/181.78 goals/match
1.21 xG/matchExpected goals15/161.16 xG/match
11.4 shots/matchShots18/1811.7 shots/match
4.89 shots/match ▲Shots on target18/184.28 shots/match
54.9% ●Possession18/1847.8%
3.17 corners/matchCorners18/18● 5.33 corners/match
2.5 cards/matchCards4/42 cards/match
11.5 fouls/matchFouls18/1812.1 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples18 / 18home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 1 Aug 2026, 03:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Major League Soccer

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsNew York City FCToronto FC
CompetitionMajor League Soccer
Head-to-headNew York City FC — Toronto FC
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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