Major League Soccer · 2026Fri, 31 Jul 2026, 23:30 UTCScheduledYankee StadiumPre-match analysis

New York City FC

WWDLW

vsPre-match analysis

Toronto FC

LLLDD

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Toronto FC's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: New York City FC's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: Lineup availability and tactical choices are not in the retained data.

Toronto FC's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Toronto FC's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.38 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	0.8 goals/match	1.38 goals/match	1.63 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

New York City FC have a visible home split

moderate

New York City FC's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

13.9 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season11.2 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

Metric	Home only	Season	Baseline
Shots	13.9 shots/match	11.2 shots/match	13 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

New York City FC have recorded the higher season possession share.

55.8%▲PossessionNew York City FC · Toronto FC47.1%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 8.7 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	New York City FC	Toronto FC	Baseline
Possession	55.8%	47.1%	50%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

New York City FC favored in 4 of 14 directional metrics · Toronto FC in 2 · 8 too close

1.69 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 16/161.38 goals/match

1.38 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 16/161.81 goals/match

1.12 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 13/141.14 xG/match

1.49 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 13/14▲1.14 xG/match

11.2 shots/matchShotsseason · 16/1611.5 shots/match

12.1 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 16/1611.6 shots/match

5 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 16/164.06 shots/match

4.75 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 16/16▲4.44 shots/match

55.8%Possessionseason · 16/1647.1%

3.31 corners/matchCornersseason · 16/165.56 corners/match

4.94 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 16/165.94 corners/match

2.5 cards/matchCardsseason · 4/42 cards/match

11.8 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 16/1612.4 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

19%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 16/1619%

81%Scoring frequencyseason · 16/1681%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

New York City FC88.3

Toronto FC28.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

New York City FC50

Toronto FC25

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

New York City FC59.5

Toronto FC56.1

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

New York City FC11.7

Toronto FC31.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

New York City FC49.1

Toronto FC43.4

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 63%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

New York City FC1.7

Toronto FC78.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

New York City FC34.2

Toronto FC45.4

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

1.6 goals/match▲Goals scored5/50.8 goals/match

0.8 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.8 goals/match

1.15 xG/match▲Expected goals5/51.01 xG/match

7.8 shots/matchShots5/5▲11.2 shots/match

4 shots/match▲Shots on target5/52.6 shots/match

48.8%Possession5/545.6%

1.8 corners/matchCorners5/54.6 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11.8 fouls/matchFouls5/511 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

1.3 goals/matchGoals scored10/101.3 goals/match

1.5 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.9 goals/match

1.04 xG/matchExpected goals10/10▲1.17 xG/match

10.3 shots/matchShots10/10▲11.5 shots/match

4.5 shots/match▲Shots on target10/103.4 shots/match

55.8%Possession10/1048.6%

2.9 corners/matchCorners10/105.2 corners/match

—Cards1/1—

10.7 fouls/matchFouls10/1012.6 fouls/match

Window

Season

16 / 16 matches

1.69 goals/match▲Goals scored16/161.38 goals/match

1.38 goals/match▲Goals allowed16/161.81 goals/match

1.12 xG/matchExpected goals13/141.14 xG/match

11.2 shots/matchShots16/1611.5 shots/match

5 shots/match▲Shots on target16/164.06 shots/match

55.8%Possession16/1647.1%

3.31 corners/matchCorners16/165.56 corners/match

2.5 cards/matchCards4/42 cards/match

11.8 fouls/matchFouls16/1612.4 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

8 / 7 matches

2.38 goals/match▲Goals scored8/70.71 goals/match

1.63 goals/matchGoals allowed8/71.57 goals/match

1.26 xG/match▲Expected goals7/50.95 xG/match

13.9 shots/match▲Shots8/710.1 shots/match

6.5 shots/match▲Shots on target8/72.86 shots/match

56.5%Possession8/746.6%

4.38 corners/matchCorners8/74.86 corners/match

—Cards1/2—

10.4 fouls/matchFouls8/711.9 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

9 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/19 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready

Season samples16 / 16home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

Freshness9 daysfrom nearest prior match

Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.

Analysis cutoff: Fri, 31 Jul 2026, 23:30 UTC · analysis-v4

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What the record shows

Toronto FC's recent record differs from the season

New York City FC have a visible home split

The teams have contrasting possession records

Values, percentiles and samples

How the teams compare

Possession control

Attacking volume

Defensive resistance

Directness proxy

Physicality

Set-piece relevance

Tempo and pressure proxy

Season, last 10 and last 5

Last 5

Last 10

Season

Home and away samples

Home team at home / away team away

Rest and recent workload

How much supports this analysis

Known unknowns

Related matches

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