PitchMath
Major League Soccer · 2026Shell Energy Stadium
3–0Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Houston Dynamo won 3–0.

Shots
1015
Shots on target
45
Expected goals
1.70.84
Possession
46%54%

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots10 shots15 shotsHouston Dynamo 10 shots, Austin FC 15 shots
  • Shots on target4 shots5 shotsHouston Dynamo 4 shots, Austin FC 5 shots
  • Expected goals1.7 xG0.84 xGHouston Dynamo 1.7 xG, Austin FC 0.84 xG
  • Possession46%54%Houston Dynamo 46%, Austin FC 54%
  • Corners1 corner6 cornersHouston Dynamo 1 corner, Austin FC 6 corners
  • Fouls12 fouls10 foulsHouston Dynamo 12 fouls, Austin FC 10 fouls
  • Yellow cards2 cards2 cardsHouston Dynamo 2 cards, Austin FC 2 cards
  • Passes427 passes486 passesHouston Dynamo 427 passes, Austin FC 486 passes
  • Pass accuracy90.2%90.1%Houston Dynamo 90.2%, Austin FC 90.1%
  • Shots inside box9 shots13 shotsHouston Dynamo 9 shots, Austin FC 13 shots
  • Blocked shots1 block5 blocksHouston Dynamo 1 block, Austin FC 5 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves5 saves1 saveHouston Dynamo 5 saves, Austin FC 1 save
  • Offsides3 offsides0 offsidesHouston Dynamo 3 offsides, Austin FC 0 offsides

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Brandon Vázquez · Austin FC · 43′ · 0.01 xG · on targetPrzemysław Płacheta · Austin FC · 36′ · 0.02 xG · on targetBrandon Vázquez · Austin FC · 45′ · 0.02 xG · on targetBrandon Vázquez · Austin FC · 50′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedPrzemysław Płacheta · Austin FC · 28′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedBrandon Vázquez · Austin FC · 90′ · 0.03 xG · on targetAgustín Bouzat · Houston Dynamo · 15′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedFacundo Torres · Austin FC · 24′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedGuilherme · Houston Dynamo · 55′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedGuilherme · Houston Dynamo · 58′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMateusz Bogusz · Houston Dynamo · 59′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedPrzemysław Płacheta · Austin FC · 23′ · 0.05 xG · on targetJon Gallagher · Austin FC · 56′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedJoseph Rosales · Austin FC · 82′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedMateja Đorđević · Austin FC · 86′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedFacundo Torres · Austin FC · 69′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedBrandon Vázquez · Austin FC · 75′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedMateusz Bogusz · Houston Dynamo · 51′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedEzequiel Ponce · Houston Dynamo · 39′ · 0.15 xG · on targetBrandon Vázquez · Austin FC · 48′ · 0.17 xG · off target or blockedGuilherme Biro · Austin FC · 90′ · 0.18 xG · off target or blockedGuilherme · Houston Dynamo · 32′ · 0.20 xG · goalEzequiel Ponce · Houston Dynamo · 15′ · 0.32 xG · off target or blockedMateusz Bogusz · Houston Dynamo · 12′ · 0.34 xG · goalMateusz Bogusz · Houston Dynamo · 29′ · 0.48 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Houston Dynamo: 10 shots, 4 on target, 1.74 xG. Austin FC: 15 shots, 5 on target, 0.84 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Mateusz Bogusz · Houston Dynamo · 12′Mateusz Bogusz · Houston Dynamo · 29′Guilherme · Houston Dynamo · 32′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Houston Dynamo 1.74 xG · Austin FC 0.84 xG.

Full time

What the match recorded

Houston Dynamo beat Austin FC 3–0. Recorded in this match (Houston Dynamo – Austin FC): shots 10–15, shots on target 4–5, expected goals 1.7–0.84, possession 46%–54%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Austin FC's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Austin FC's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.29 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.8 goals/match1.29 goals/match1.58 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

moderate

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Houston Dynamo, Austin FC.

3 days ▲Rest daysHouston Dynamo · Austin FC2.96 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricHouston DynamoAustin FCBaseline
Rest days3 days2.96 days—
Matches last 14 days1 match1 match—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Houston Dynamo show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Houston Dynamo's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

13.3 shots/match ▲ShotsHouston Dynamo · Austin FC10.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricHouston DynamoAustin FCBaseline
Shots13.3 shots/match10.5 shots/match13 shots/match
Shots against12.4 shots/match17.2 shots/match12.4 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2Houston Dynamo
1Draws
2Austin FC
Austin FC — Houston Dynamo · Major League Soccer2–0
Austin FC — Houston Dynamo · Major League Soccer2–2
Houston Dynamo — Austin FC · Major League Soccer2–0
Austin FC — Houston Dynamo · Major League Soccer0–1
Austin FC — Houston Dynamo · Major League Soccer1–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Houston Dynamo favored in 11 of 13 directional metrics · Austin FC in 0 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Houston Dynamo16 matchesAustin FC17 matches
1.44 goals/match ▲Goals scored16/171.29 goals/match
1.5 goals/match ▲Goals allowed16/172.06 goals/match
1.13 xG/match ▲Expected goals14/140.95 xG/match
13.3 shots/match ▲Shots16/1710.5 shots/match
4.81 shots/match ▲Shots on target16/174.06 shots/match
44.5%Possession16/17● 47.8%
4.19 corners/matchCorners16/17● 4.41 corners/match
2.86 cards/matchCards7/42 cards/match
10.4 fouls/matchFouls16/1710.9 fouls/match

Style profile

Style profile

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Houston Dynamo8.3
Austin FC41.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Houston Dynamo57.2
Austin FC13.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Houston Dynamo61.1
Austin FC8.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Houston Dynamo85.0
Austin FC25.0
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Houston Dynamo47.5
Austin FC24.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 62%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Houston Dynamo15.0
Austin FC25.0
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Houston Dynamo40.8
Austin FC19.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

  • Matches in previous 14 days · Both teams: 1 match
3 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/12.96 days

Houston Dynamo / Austin FC

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples16 / 17home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 26 Jul 2026, 04:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Major League Soccer

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsHouston DynamoAustin FC
CompetitionMajor League Soccer
Head-to-headHouston Dynamo — Austin FC
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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