PitchMath
Major League Soccer · 2026Dick's Sporting Goods Park
1–0Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Colorado Rapids won 1–0.

Shots
96
Shots on target
12
Expected goals
0.411.17
Possession
52%48%

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots9 shots6 shotsColorado Rapids 9 shots, San Diego FC 6 shots
  • Shots on target1 shot2 shotsColorado Rapids 1 shot, San Diego FC 2 shots
  • Expected goals0.41 xG1.17 xGColorado Rapids 0.41 xG, San Diego FC 1.17 xG
  • Possession52%48%Colorado Rapids 52%, San Diego FC 48%
  • Corners5 corners3 cornersColorado Rapids 5 corners, San Diego FC 3 corners
  • Fouls17 fouls7 foulsColorado Rapids 17 fouls, San Diego FC 7 fouls
  • Yellow cards4 cards3 cardsColorado Rapids 4 cards, San Diego FC 3 cards
  • Passes461 passes430 passesColorado Rapids 461 passes, San Diego FC 430 passes
  • Pass accuracy88.9%86.1%Colorado Rapids 88.9%, San Diego FC 86.1%
  • Shots inside box5 shots4 shotsColorado Rapids 5 shots, San Diego FC 4 shots
  • Blocked shots4 blocks3 blocksColorado Rapids 4 blocks, San Diego FC 3 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves2 saves1 saveColorado Rapids 2 saves, San Diego FC 1 save
  • Offsides4 offsides0 offsidesColorado Rapids 4 offsides, San Diego FC 0 offsides

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Anders Dreyer · San Diego FC · 86′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedRafael Navarro · Colorado Rapids · 31′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedKosi Thompson · Colorado Rapids · 80′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedDarren Yapi · Colorado Rapids · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedHamzat Ojediran · Colorado Rapids · 59′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedRafael Navarro · Colorado Rapids · 49′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAlex Mighten · San Diego FC · 71′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedDante Sealy · Colorado Rapids · 9′ · 0.06 xG · on targetDante Sealy · Colorado Rapids · 18′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedAnders Dreyer · San Diego FC · 90′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedGeorgi Minoungou · Colorado Rapids · 58′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedLoïc Williams · Colorado Rapids · 90′ · 0.14 xG · goalMarcus Ingvartsen · San Diego FC · 69′ · 0.19 xG · on targetOnni Valakari · San Diego FC · 64′ · 0.22 xG · on targetOnni Valakari · San Diego FC · 69′ · 0.34 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Colorado Rapids: 9 shots, 2 on target, 0.48 xG. San Diego FC: 6 shots, 2 on target, 0.87 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.510′HT90′Loïc Williams · Colorado Rapids · 90′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Colorado Rapids 0.48 xG · San Diego FC 0.87 xG.

Full time

What the match recorded

Colorado Rapids beat San Diego FC 1–0. Recorded in this match (Colorado Rapids – San Diego FC): shots 9–6, shots on target 1–2, expected goals 0.41–1.17, possession 52%–48%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Colorado Rapids's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Colorado Rapids's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.63 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.8 goals/match1.63 goals/match1.63 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Colorado Rapids have a visible home split

moderate

Colorado Rapids's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

14.1 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season10.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots14.1 shots/match10.8 shots/match13 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Colorado Rapids
0Draws
1San Diego FC
San Diego FC — Colorado Rapids · Major League Soccer2–0
Colorado Rapids — San Diego FC · Major League Soccer3–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Colorado Rapids favored in 4 of 13 directional metrics · San Diego FC in 6 · 3 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Colorado Rapids16 matchesSan Diego FC16 matches
1.63 goals/matchGoals scored16/16▲ 1.88 goals/match
1.5 goals/match ▲Goals allowed16/161.75 goals/match
1.25 xG/matchExpected goals13/13▲ 1.43 xG/match
10.8 shots/matchShots16/1611.2 shots/match
4.13 shots/matchShots on target16/16▲ 4.44 shots/match
55.4%Possession16/16● 60.8%
4.81 corners/match ●Corners16/164.56 corners/match
3.63 cards/matchCards8/92.89 cards/match
14.3 fouls/matchFouls16/1611.1 fouls/match

Style profile

Style profile

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Colorado Rapids85.0
San Diego FC98.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Colorado Rapids26.7
San Diego FC41.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Colorado Rapids64.5
San Diego FC28.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Colorado Rapids5.0
San Diego FC1.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Colorado Rapids95.0
San Diego FC53.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 75%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Colorado Rapids51.7
San Diego FC40.0
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Colorado Rapids43.0
San Diego FC29.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

  • Rest before fixture · Both teams: 60 days
  • Matches in previous 14 days · Both teams: 0 matches

Colorado Rapids / San Diego FC

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples16 / 16home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Thu, 23 Jul 2026, 05:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Major League Soccer

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsColorado RapidsSan Diego FC
CompetitionMajor League Soccer
Head-to-headColorado Rapids — San Diego FC
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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